By: Clint Watts, General Manager, Microsoft Threat Analysis Center.
Russia has escalated malignant disinformation campaigns against France, French President Emmanuel Macron, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and this summer’s Olympic Games in Paris. While Russia has a decades-long history of attacking the Olympic Games, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) has seen old tactics mixing with artificial intelligence (AI) in malign activity that can intensify as the Paris 2024 Opening Ceremony approaches. These actions have two main objectives:
- Denigrate the reputation of the IOC
- Creating the expectation that violence will break out in Paris at the Games
Several prolific Russian influencers, which Microsoft tracks as Storm-1679 and Storm-1099, have pivoted their operations since June 2023 to focus on the Olympics. This information is detailed in a special Microsoft threat intelligence report released today: “Russian influence efforts converge at Paris 2024 Olympics«.
The Olympic Games have fallen
The Olympics-focused activity began in June 2023, when Storm-1679 launched on Telegram and then spread online a feature film called “Olympics Has Fallen,” which mimics the 2013 American political action thriller “Olympus Has Fallen.” Through fake AI-generated audio posing as actor Tom Cruise to imply his involvement, the film disparaged IOC leaders. The use of computer-generated special effects and an extensive marketing campaign, including fake endorsements from Western media outlets and celebrities, indicates a significant increase in skill and effort compared to most Influence Ops campaigns ( IO, for its acronym in English).
Spread of fear of violence
Storm-1679’s goals are not limited to defaming the IOC. It also seeks to spread public fear to discourage spectators from attending the Games. Over the past year, he has steadily produced a collection of misleading videos about the expectation of violence at the Games. Some examples are:
- A video purporting to be from the Brussels-based media outlet Euro News claimed that Parisians had purchased property insurance in anticipation of terrorism at the Games.
- A fake video purporting to come from French broadcaster France24 claimed that 24% of tickets for the games had been returned due to terrorism fears.
- Fake video press releases posing as coming from the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the French Directorate General of Internal Security (DGSI) were produced warning potential attendees to kept away from the 2024 Paris Olympics due to the alleged risk of a terrorist attack.
- Storm-1679 has also tried to use the conflict between Israel and Hamas to fabricate threats to the Games. In November 2023, he posted images claiming to show graffiti in Paris threatening violence against Israeli citizens attending the Games. Microsoft assesses that this graffiti was generated digitally and is unlikely to exist in a physical location.
- Other images and videos referenced the 1972 Munich Olympics, where members of Black September, a militant organization, killed 11 members of the Israeli Olympic team and a West German police officer. Microsoft currently does not have enough information to attribute the video to a specific actor, but its strong amplification by pro-Russian bot accounts suggests that the video may be another operation in the broader Olympic campaign.
Other Russian threat actors have begun to join the fray
Storm-1679 isn’t the only Russian-aligned actor seeking to undermine the 2024 Games. The Russia-affiliated actor Microsoft tracks as Storm-1099, better known as “Doppelganger,” has stepped up its anti-Olympic messaging in recent years. two months. Through his set of 15 unique French-language “news” sites, including his main disinformation outlet Reliable News Network (RNN), he makes claims about rampant IOC corruption and warns of potential violence at the Games. The actor also falsifies the French media Le Parisien and Le Point to echo such statements and punish Macron and his government, his alleged spectacular nature around the Games and his indifference to the difficulties faced by citizens. French.
Forward
With less than three months until the Olympic opening ceremony on July 26, MTAC expects malign activity focused on the Olympics by Russia to intensify. The mostly French-speaking activities are likely to expand into English, German and other languages to maximize online visibility and traction, and the use of generative AI is also likely to increase. While video has traditionally been a powerful tool for Russian OI campaigns and will continue to be, we are likely to see a tactical shift towards online bots and automated social media accounts. These can offer the illusion of widespread support by rapidly flooding social media channels and giving Russians a level of plausible deniability.
On the ground, Russian actors may seek to exploit the focus on tight security by creating illusions of real-world protests or provocations, thereby undermining trust in the IOC and French security forces. The in-person staging of events, whether real or orchestrated, near or around Olympic venues could be used to manipulate public perceptions and generate a sense of fear and uncertainty.
Microsoft remains committed to protecting the conduct and integrity of the 2024 Summer Olympics. MTAC will monitor and report on any campaigns arising from Kremlin-backed actors in the run-up to and opening of the Paris Games.
Tags: Cybersecurity, Cyber Influence, Microsoft Threat Analysis Center, MTAC, On the Issues, Influence Operations, Russia
