Few doubted that Claudia Sheinbaum She would win the Mexican elections on June 2 and become the country’s first female president. But voters’ landslide victory for her and Morena, the ruling party, exceeded her expectations. She obtained at least 58% of the votes, a higher quota than that obtained in 2018 by her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Morena’s coalition is almost certain to obtain a supermajority in Congress. This spells danger: Even before he takes office on October 1, his ruling party will be able to shape Mexico, even by altering the Constitution.
The resounding victory is due in part to Morena’s redistributive policies, a combination of monetary transfers and constant increases in the minimum wage. Sheinbaum’s percentage of votes was higher in the poorest areas of the country, although she won in all but one of the 32 Mexican states. “I don’t receive anything, but I’m glad that students, the elderly and people with limited resources have help,” says Miriam Salazar, a 42-year-old architect in Mexico City.
The fiscal deficit now exceeds 5% of GDP. Containing it while these transfers are paid, which Sheinbaum plans to expand, is just one of the challenges. He will have to please his supporters and his party (without the populist charisma of López Obrador) and reassure the financial markets. We must also urgently address the growing insecurity and Mexico’s mediocre economy.
Sheinbaum, who was a technocrat as mayor of Mexico City, was conciliatory in her victory speech. She promised to govern for all Mexicans, preserve democracy, work with the United States and encourage investment and private business. But the Mexican stock market fell 6% and the peso reached its lowest level against the dollar in six months. The sales were due to concerns about Morena’s supermajority and the possibility that she would support López Obrador’s efforts to rewrite the Constitution in a way that undermines democracy and harms Mexican companies.
Congress will take possession of its seats a month before the new president does, so López Obrador will have the opportunity to push for a package of 20 constitutional changes himself. He wants to enshrine animal welfare and a minimum wage linked to inflation. The judges of the Supreme Court and the presidents of the electoral body will be appointed by popular vote. A series of autonomous organizations would be abolished. Control of the federal police would pass to the Ministry of Defense, which the Supreme Court had declared unconstitutional.
Sheinbaum has openly supported these initiatives. In theory, her strong personal mandate could allow him to chart his own path. But Morena’s supermajority increases López Obrador’s influence after the presidency, since she controls the party, and can curb any divergent instincts she harbors. López Obrador has some red lines, such as continuing to prop up Pemex, the most indebted state oil company in the world.
Sheinbaum is clever. She may find a way to make her own mark and keep her mentor happy, perhaps echoing her nationalist and “Mexico First” rhetoric, but acting with less fanfare and being business-friendly in private. . She will have more space to promote her own policies in public services such as healthcare.
Sheinbaum’s promise to boost Mexico’s transition to green energy – a rare policy on which he disagreed with López Obrador during the campaign – will be a test. Abundant clean energy is needed to stimulate economic growth. Mexico’s dirty and expensive electricity has discouraged foreign investors, meaning the country has failed to realize its potential as a place for companies diversifying away from China to expand.
The lack of serious opposition to the government is worrying. The strongest opposition coalition, led by Xochitl Galvez“It has been a total failure and is dead,” says Antonio Ocaranza, analyst. This offers Morena the opportunity to tighten his grip on her, and leaves dangerously few checks and balances.
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