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After first face-to-face debate between current US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, that was experienced on Thursday night in Atlanta (east), Bookmakers have increased their activity by betting on who will keep the White House and be the next president of the United States.
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The impressions left by this debate fell mainly on Joe Biden, who seemed to lose the train of his thoughts and his words at several points, all this after several previous public appearances where he seemed confused and that would exacerbate rumors about the health of the 81-year-old president.
Although former President Donald Trump made statements that have been proven to be false, and directly avoided answering questions posed to him, the focus of this meeting could be on what some analysts described as “Panic” within the Democratic Party following Biden’s disorientation, which could indicate a necessary change in the party’s choice to win the presidency.
Donald Trump himself declared Biden’s confusion about the word, and about his speech. “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either,” Trump replied at the end of one of his rants.
There was no doubt that this debate left the American population, and the world in general, with bad impressions. Even Kate Bedingfield, Biden’s former communications director, quickly intervened on CNN after the debate: “There is no doubt that it was not a good debate for Joe Biden.”
What do the markets say? According to experts, the betting markets are leaning towards other Democratic candidates, other than Biden, to be the future president of the United States.
In prediction markets there has been an increase Between 19% and 39% the probability that Biden will resign and be replaced by another of the party’s representatives, due to Biden’s vague statements and poor performance in the debate.
The belief has moved to betting markets and prediction markets powered by Polygon, such as Polymarket, of Biden’s abandonment probabilities increased, according to the Bitcoin media. People are supporting Biden leaving this presidential race as this probability increased by 105% in less than 12 hours after the debate.
Most markets show a similar trend, with Biden falling and Trump rising. The option is for the Democratic Party to replace its presidential token, with, for example, characters such as its vice president, Kamala Harris (who would be his natural successor); Illinois Governor JB Pritzker; or the governor of California, Gavin Newsom. However, the latter, after the debate, said that he “would never turn his back on Biden.”
“We are not in the 60s”
This crisis, which could be intensifying within the party, has been attempted by some political figures such as Obama’s former advisor, David Axelrod who has referred to speculation about President Biden’s replacement.
“The point is that now he is the candidate of the Democratic Party. We’re not in the ’60s, okay? Voters choose the candidate. He is the candidate, only he can decide whether he will continue,” Axelrod told CNN.
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However, analysts have been left with deep concern about the future of the Democratic Party.
“This was a game-changing debate in the sense that right now, as we speak, “There is a deep, broad and very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party,” said veteran CNN national correspondent John King.
