Hear
On Tuesday, Guillermo Francos, Luis “Toto” Caputo and Santiago Caputo They held a reserved meeting in what used to be the Ministry of the Interior on the ground floor of the Casa Rosada. Javier Milei, Just arrived from Prague, he was suffering from the effects of jet lag in the body and did not go to the seat of government that day. The Chief of Staff and the two Caputos are today the main decision makers under the libertarian leader. Politics, macro, cash registers, strategy, communication, intelligence, relationships with corporations. Everything is cooked between the three of them. The super powerful girl is Karina Milei, that defines the promotions and relegations in La Libertad Avanza, in addition to the international promotion of the experiment.
At the beginning of the week, the three strong men in the cabinet were facing one of the most crucial moments for the Government. The days of the “tipping point” have finally arrived. At that time, “Toto” He was preparing to announce the “closing of the issuance tap” in an attempt to renew market confidence and to try to prevent inflation from running out and the dollar from continuing to rise; Franks adjusted the pegs of the vote on the Base Law and the fiscal package; Santiago Caputo It prepared the epic atmosphere for the day after.
June was a difficult month for Milei, who spends a good part of his day monitoring economic data. The BCRA had to sell reserves, the blue currency jumped as did the financial dollars and private projections spoke of a slowdown in the decline of inflation. Due to seasonality – the payment of Christmas bonuses – it is possible that there will not be a surplus. On the last working day, Congress presented the laws to the Executive Branch. “The toolbox” in the eyes of politics. So things are, The system’s pressure was redoubled so that libertarians began to show more concrete results for the people.
Adding to the complexity of the overall picture are unforced errors. They are almost always problems of timing. Milei is the main spokesperson for his administration and, when he speaks, It usually anticipates movements that generate anxiety. Libertarians defend his genuine verbosity, but there are officials who suffer from the climate he generates.
This is what happened with the landing of Federico Sturzenegger, announced more than a month ago. “Javier came a lot ahead,” commented a minister who knows the two economists closely. Stripping the daisy while waiting for the “Colossus” the internal resentments grew. “There is no way there will be no friction. Federico cannot help but say what he thinks and is very attached to his ideas,” predicted an official who knows the former head of the BCRA well.
It is believed that when Sturzenegger wants to make the three-quarters of reforms that he literally left out of DNU 70/2023 a reality, he could have clashes with Franks, who wants to take the Government along the path of what is feasible. Sturzenegger is the father of Base Law 1 and the Chief of Staff is the architect of the law that remained.
In addition, there is fear of short circuits with Luis Caputo, which at this moment needs to be armored. An official collaborator who witnessed the libertarian plot explained: “At the very beginning it was thought that Toto was going to dedicate itself to the stabilization and adjustment of the first months and that this was going to wear him out. But now it still has a good image. Milei loves him and he wants to stay.” Close to the minister, they emphasize that at all times their plan was long-term.
The latest focus of tension with Sturzenegger looms with Santiago Caputo, the third of the Casa Rosada conclave and which continued yesterday in people, on one side, the economic announcements. He, who is adding more and more areas of influence, does damage control and must avoid casting shadows on the Minister of Economy. Furthermore, for all the regulations, he placed a woman with his kidney, Maria Ibarzabal Murphy.
In its trend spoiler, Milei also caused a stir when she anticipated possible candidacies for 2025 and spoke of the deputy José Luis Espert and the spokesperson Manuel Adorni. The innocent comment fell very badly on Pro de Mauricio Macri. That sector stopped waiting for the game to open to include management and He observed with displeasure that Posse officials were replaced, in many cases, by figures from Buenos Aires Peronism. Now the expectation of electoral convergence is also clouded.
The other dimension of time in the libertarian administration is marked by the President’s trips abroad. There was relief in the Casa Rosada when it was confirmed that next week Milei will not travel to China as had been speculated. If the already confirmed trip to Paris to attend the Olympic Games was added to that mission to the Far East, July was going to be another month of strong presidential absence.
When Milei is out of the country, many administrative issues are frozen and decrees are not signed (until now). Victoria Villarruel (He never interfered.) There is often a rush before the head of state gets on the plane. “The day Milei travels is deadly,” an official collaborator was sincere.
The other thing that happens with Milei at long distance is that crisis fronts flourish. On the previous trip the focus was on Human Capital and This time, the relationship with the IMF seemed to creak. The President confirmed this on Monday from Europe when he fired a missile at Rodrigo Valdes, the director of the Western Hemisphere Department of the Fund. The Government had made confidential and highest-level efforts to informally remove the Chilean economist from the Argentine negotiation table. He believed he was successful, although formally it was not clear how Valdés could separate himself, since his job consists precisely of supervising the economies of the continent. The visibility that the matter acquired in Milei’s mouth complicated everything. In the eyes of the world, the Argentina cannot choose the organization’s negotiators.
At the last cabinet meeting, without Milei present, Caputo sought to reassure the team about the relationship with the IMF. In politics, no important decision is made at a meeting of many people, but the ministerial conclaves are for sharing information. The deputy chief of staff, Jose “Cochi” Rolandi, He is the “baton bearer” who carries out the day’s agenda and hands out the word. There is always time for economic dissertation in the hands of Milei, Caputo and the chancellor Diana Mondino, the other economist of the team. Sometimes the head of the Central Bank also attends, Santiago Bausili. It goes unnoticed, just in case, although this Government has already naturalized that the monetary entity is not autonomous.
This Tuesday, the Minister of Economy also unleashed anger against the economic operators who, six months into his administration, are demanding a roadmap to get out of the trap and face a path of growth. He is also furious with some of the pressbecause it highlights this state of things. He is not the only one who rails against journalism. Signs of hostility are growing from the Government, as was seen when the Government called the mandatory registration of journalists, an obsolete practice since 1985. The initiative was soon discontinued.
With the change of phase enabled by the Bases Law, The Government needs to renew expectations. The depth of the recession is now known with certainty (GDP fell 5.1% year-on-year in the first quarter) and Some pollsters began to perceive that the trend in the Government’s image worsened. This week, Ministers who are comfortable with a low profile were asked to speak more, who defend their management and are spokespersons for the project.
To show that the economy began to rebound, Milei shared in X a table from JP Morgan for Argentina, which shows the evolution of different indicators (activities, exports, imports, collection). Almost all items were in furious red between December and April, but the President celebrated the transition to a dark orange in May.
For the next few days, the Casa Rosada has already let it be known that there will be a packed domestic presidential agenda. Milei will announce a literacy plan from some province, a novel postcard. An event is also being planned for the signing of the May Pact, in San Miguel de Tucumán, the night of July 8 with the governors. The gathering will last until midnight to sing the Independence Day Anthem. A more local scene, more in tune with the local time zone, far from Nobel Prize dreams that the President has when he travels the world.
