It was foreseeable that the lowering of rates was going to impact all dollars, starting with the free one where small and medium savers take refuge, which rose $60 (+5.36%) to $1,180. So far this month, almost everything that the fixed term yields in 4 months has increased by $120 (11.5%). A month ago it was worth $1,000.
The rise was transferred to financial dollars. Demand with strong business and absence of exporters exacerbated prices. As there was no supply from exporters, cash with settlement (CCL) had a decrease in supply and rose 3.30% to $1,142.47. The MEP increased $$32.43 (+3%) to $1,103.55. The gap grew to 28.5%, a percentage that does not bother.
In the Free Exchange Market (MLC) business was scarce. USD 218 million were operated. The previous week the average business was USD 327 million per day throughout May. Importers purchased only USD 92 million, which allowed the Central Bank to keep UDS 126 million, which served to increase reserves by USD 150 million to USD 28,898 million.
Andrés Reschini’s F2 consultancy indicated that “the week began with increases in commodities agricultural prices due to the continuation of climatic problems in Brazil and also in Russia that caused soybeans and corn to rise, but, above all, wheat after the declines suffered the previous week. Even so, the agricultural sector remains reluctant to accelerate liquidations and this has its correlation in the volume of operations of the MLC. “It will be crucial for the Central Bank to maintain purchasing balances and for the volume to increase.”
Soybeans rose by USD 6.89, to USD 459.57 per ton, a price that encourages exporters who expect it to approach USD 500 because they know that there will be no devaluation in the coming months. Wheat had its biggest daily rise in 10 months. It increased 6.50% to USD 253.08 and is a stimulus for the near start of sowing.
Regarding the dollar futures market, F2 noted that “it began with limited volume. 177,136 contracts were traded compared to 332,286 on Friday, an amount that was not high either. The adjustments were mixed. “Negative variations in the short part and positive in the long part but less traded, with +1.2% being the maximum variation achieved for March 2025 although with only 3 contracts negotiated.”
The bonds in pesos had new actors: the LECAP tendered last Thursday. Soon supply and demand placed them in the expected place with a yield of 3.3%. These LECAPs had been tendered with a monthly return of up to 4.2%.
Investment funds were the main actors in all sections of the fixed rate securities curve. At the same time that the LECAP rose, the CER bonds that mature in 2024 increased 0.77% and the T2X5 bonds, 0.56%.
Sovereign bonds recovered from their initial weakness and posted slight increases. From 0.9% in the AL30D and 1% in the global 2030. In 2035, it increased 0.25%. The result was a drop in country risk of just 5 units (-0.4%) to 1,258 basis points. Luck remains tied to the Base Law.
On the Stock Market, the rise in the Merval of the leading shares was 4.7% in pesos and only 1.1% in dollars due to the rise in the CCL. The best performing papers were those of the banks. BVA increased 8.43%; Transportadora Gas del Sur, 5.78% and Banco Supervielle, 5.43%.
Financial analyst Leo Anzalone, from the Center for Political and Economic Studies, pointed out that what is stimulating the market is that today the Argentine Commercial Exchange will be known, relevant to knowing the income of dollars. “On Thursday we will have an approximation to the levels of activity through consumption because the surveys of supermarkets, wholesale self-service and shopping centers will be published in March.”
The CEPEC report indicated what the most important events will be in the coming days.
-Tomorrow BBVA, Macro, Galicia and Supervielle will present their balance sheets. Mirgor will do it on Monday and Transener will do it on Tuesday. This expectation is driving stocks higher.
-Abroad, the appearance of the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, is expected today and tomorrow, awaiting news on interest rates in the Euro zone.
-On Thursday the PMI Index for the manufacturing sector and the services sector will be released, fundamental for the Federal Reserve’s decision regarding the interest rate.
As the balance of the wheel, investors’ preference for the dollar remains, which in no way affects the banks that have seen their deposits grow since Javier Milei took office by USD 3,250 million (+22%) while USD 2,750 million have been lent. Stocks will also be in high demand due to the hope of attractive balance sheets.
On Wednesday, meanwhile, what may be BOPREAL’s last tender will be held, if they do not decide to expand this title that the Central Bank issued to pay debt with importers. The remaining USD 60 million from Series 3 will be offered to importers and companies that wish to transfer dividends abroad. The yield on series 3 is USD 18% and the increase in the CCL can be a good lure to liquidate what is left of this bond. Those who bought CCL dollars yesterday will regret not having purchased the BOPREAL in the last tender where only USD 35 million were placed
