The employees in a dependency relationship They will begin to collect at the end of this month or beginning of July the half a Christmas bonus, In a scenario in which the salary lost purchasing power in the first months of the year due to the impact of devaluation, the successive drops in interest rates made the yield of the traditional fixed term lose to inflation, with recent volatility of parallel dollars.
In this context, analysts predict that a large part of the bonus will be used to pay debts, buy a needed product, winter vacations, or treat yourself. But for those who have the possibility of saving it, Investment strategists explain which are the best alternatives to make the bonus pay off in the case of people with a conservative profile, and for those who dare to take more risk.
Fixed-term bonus, dollar or LECAPs?: recommendations for a conservative investor
The financial analyst Gustavo Ber commented to iProfessional yes The saver is going to require short-term funds, and could place them in short-term Capitalizable Treasury Bills (LECAPs, fixed rate instruments), or a Common Investment Fund that includes such instruments.“. And he explained that he suggests the LECAPs “due to their greater relative profitability, short-term alternatives, and high liquidity.” In the last Treasury debt tender led by Minister Luis Caputo, the LECAPs maturing in September were placed at a minimum monthly rate of 4.25%.
“In the case of having a longer horizon, a still conservative investor could evaluate alternatives between Negotiable Obligations (ON) in dollars, from companies such as Pan American Energy, Pampa, Arcor or Telecom, or directly through an FCI with said exhibition,” he said. And he stated that they are “the sectors with the best fundamentals and valuations to capture a greater ‘upside’ in a constructive scenario regarding the continuity of the normalization process of the economy.”
Faced with inflation in May of 4.2% and given that some consulting firms foresee an acceleration to the 6% range in the coming months due to the impact of the rate increase, the financial advisor José Ignacio Bano recommended for a conservative profile who wants to invest in pesos to do so “in a fixed term UVA (it is 180 days) that pays inflation plus 1 percent, and will yield more than the traditional fixed term” which gives a profitability of between 2.5% and 2.7%, according to the bank.
“For those who want to protect themselves against the dollarthe problem is that almost all the assets that pay you dollar rate here in Argentina they are quite risky. The balance is in some ONs. One that I really like is the ON of MSU Energy, which expires in November of this year, and yields close to a 9% rate in dollars. It is quite profitable, quite conservative, and is short-term,” he noted.
The UVA fixed term is an option for conservative profiles who seek to beat inflation
The research team of Cocos Capitalrecommend for this type of profiles that seek stability and predictability in their investments, a portfolio of fixed income assets, made up of 20% in YMCQO, ONde YPF due in 2026, pays MEP dollar and is yielding around 7.5% annually, among the companies with the best credit in Argentina; 20% in MGC9O, ON of Pampa Energía, which is yielding approximately 8%, 20% in TLC1O, Telecom ON, 20% BPY26, Bopreal due in 2026which is yielding 18% and the remaining 20% at MEP dollar and FCI Cocos USD Savings made up of various ONs, which is estimated to yield between 6% and 7%.
In turn, the research team of Adcap Financial Group They recommend for conservative profiles who like savings without worries buy MEP dollarand for investors who need to manage funds to pay off debts or commitments, with a horizon of more than one month, the Adcap Pesos Plus Fund, which gives “higher returns than a wholesale fixed term, with low volatility and high liquidity.”
Bonus: investments for an aggressive profile
Ber considered that “a riskier saver, and with a longer investment horizon, could evaluate diversifying into sovereign bonds – including AL30 and GD35 – and banking and energy sector stocks betting on constructive political and economic scenarios that allow prices to continue expanding.”
In Cocos Capital For investors willing to assume a higher level of risk in search of potentially higher long-term returns, they put together a portfolio consisting of: 15% in BPY26 (fixed income to provide a certain margin of safety to the portfolio), 15% in GD35 and 15% in AL30, CEDEARS (share certificates of foreign companies that are purchased in the local market in pesos) of technology companies mentioned as Microsoft and Mercado Libre, with 10% each and we add 15% in SPY.
To that they add, 20% in local actions and in equal parts (5% in each one) of the companies: “Pampa, Transportadora Gas del Nortea company that has been solid in recent times despite the problems with the gas supply nationwide; Cresuda leading agricultural company; Galicia Bank, “We are in a context of changes in the banking sector with the recent offers of mortgage loans and if we look at the long term, we could be in sight of an offer of truly sustainable products in the sector”he explained Damián Palais, financial advisor of Cocos Capital.
At the same time, Bathroom suggested among the options: “a CER bonus, the TX26; the sovereign hard dollar bonds GD30 and GD35, because There was several positive news such as the approval in the Senate of the Bases Law, the renewal of the swap with China, a possible agreement with the IMF, with which I consider that the fall of these bonds is over, and I see it as a nice point entry”.
Shares of energy companies are among analysts’ recommendations
“And only for one very aggressive profile, included Argentine actions, from Central Puerto and (CEPU) and Pampa. “If two or three good news are released as happened this week, we can have a small flow of funds to Argentina again and they should push up a little more,” he estimated.
In Adcap advised for investors who do not need to use pesos and want to take long-term risk, the Adcap Shares Fund that seeks to “achieve a capital appreciation higher than the performance of the Rofex 20 index from a highly diversified portfolio and active management of investments , within a long-term investment horizon”.
Behind the approval in the Senate of the Bases Law and the fiscal package, Adcap highlighted that: “with the rise in sovereign bonds materializing, “We see an opportunity in Bopreal and inflation-bound instruments.”
“Considering that the dollar was under significant pressure these days, jumping to $1,300, we see an opportunity in the Peso Bonds as some pressure disappears. In addition, the fact that the Country Tax is reduced from 17.50% to 7.50% will reduce part of the dollar’s support. Therefore, we see a 7% increase in the BONCER. Alternatively, the Bopreales could be an opportunity with an average rise of 4%, since they had lagged behind. .
