He Dolar blue broke a new record this Monday, June 24, by climbing another $30 (+2.3%) to be among the unpublished $1,330 for sale, after the holiday Flag Day. In this way, it accumulates an increase of $105 (+8.6%) so far this month after weeks marked by the debate of the law Bases and the tax package, as well as the request for acceleration of the “crawling-peg” of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The parallel currency is heading to record its third monthly increase in a row despite the successive clarifications from the Government about its refusal to devalue, which this Monday the president himself Javier Milei ratified. Meanwhile, the gap with the officer he is already located in the 46.4%, 5 month maximum. With everything, Does the market believe or not the Government that it is not going to accelerate the “crawling-peg”?
Overheated blue dollar: what are the reasons for its bullish dynamics?
City analysts agree that seasonally the period from mid-June to early July is bullish for he parallel dollar. This is explained purely and exclusively by the bonus payment.
In that sense, the economist Federico Glustein highlighted to Ámbito that in some sectors it has already begun to be perceived and, in the middle of the economic crisis“the surplus of funds, which are not going to pay expenses, and are directed to savings”, which generates greater demand in this very limited market.
For these reasons, the economist Gustavo Quintana added factors such as Winter Break and the value of the tourist dollar ($1,483.20), which “stimulates demand in the blue market” from those Argentines who travel to another country. This is because “both expenses abroad and card consumption in dollars should be paid with MEP or blue.”
In turn, the negative real rates They also encourage the parallel market, since the fixed term rate is close to the 2.9% nominal and that of the Lecap are located in 4.25%In front of one inflation that is projected between the 5% and 6% monthly.
For Martin MazzaDirector of MM Investments, the recent rise of blue “It is mainly due to the coverage due to the short week of holidays and the greater demand when reopening operations.” For the expert, there is a “relative lagging of the price of the dollar compared to inflation”, while “Negative real interest rates encourage dollarization.”
Record blue dollar: does the market believe the Government that it is not going to devalue?
The Government insists that it will maintain the “crawling-peg” at 2%at least until renegotiate a new agreement with the IMF. “Comments persist about the alleged exchange delaycompletion of dollar blend (liquidation of 80% in the official market, and 20% in the financial market), despite the fact that all this was officially denied. The concern remains and in a small market like the blue, any change in trend impacts prices. “There is less supply and greater demand.”analyzed Gustavo Quintana.
“While the fixed crawl rate – currently at 2% monthly – helped anchor inflation after the large devaluation, authorities will adjust exchange rate policy over time to move more flexibly, in order to better reflect fundamentals. and safeguard an improvement in reserve coverage”the agency’s technicians noted in the report of the eighth review of the extended facilities program.
In this context, it also presses the lower foreign exchange settlement by the field, which does not allow the BCRA to add the dollars it needs. Among the reasons for not speeding up sales, according to the economist Federico Zirulnikthere is the promise of Javier Milei of a possible elimination of withholding taxes on the sector.
In this framework, the weakness of the monetary authority’s reserves generates concern in the market, and with it, greater pressure on parallel quotes, Glustein added.
In it political sphere, the debate of the Law Bases and the tax package in it Senatewhich was finally approved after last-minute negotiations, affected the blue market, while this week Deputieswhich is the Chamber of origin, must endorse the initiatives, or insist on the original wording.
Overheated blue dollar: how much could it go?
After the increases in recent weeks, Glustein predicted that the Dolar blue It could reach $1,350 (a value close to what it is currently).
Although, Quintana was more confident that at some point a decline will be observed, with activity normalized after the short week.
