Specifically, already US$10,791 million were settled, out of US$26,882 million that the Rosario Stock Exchange estimates that They will be liquidated in 2024: Of this last number, it is expected that US$20,995 million will enter through the Free Exchange Market and the other US$5,887 million will do so through the cash channel with settlement, if the Government supports the so-called blend dollar , through which it enables exporters to sell 20% at the financial exchange rate.
The projection of the Rosario Stock Exchange once again shows the Central Bank (BCRA) and the Government that this year’s harvest will not be a record by any means, but at least it will represent a jump compared to the dollars that the sector entered in 2023. If these forecasts are verified, The settlement for the 2024 calendar year will be 51% higher than the US$17,883 million in 2023a year marked by drought.
But on the other side, Those US$26,882 million expected for this year are 11% below the average from the period 2021-2023: In these three years, the liquidation of agriculture averaged about US$30,342 million. In addition, this year’s figure will be even further from the US$39,611 million settled in 2022.
“Locally, despite the approval of the basic law in the Senate, the CCL dollar continued to rise. With 20% of that price being transferred to the export exchange rate, the blend dollar is giving almost 10% increase in grain prices“explained Dante Romano, from the Austral University.
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It is expected that US$26,882 million will enter, which will be 11% below the average.
Falling prices hit Argentine exports
Although the volume of exports in tons projected for the year 2024 is 58% higher than that of 2023, with 89.4 million tons for the main agricultural complexes, and is even 6% higher than the average of the last three years , International prices have fallen 19% compared to the previous year and 16% compared to the average of the last three years.
At the close of June 24, a ton of soybeans was around US$430. In this regard, a report by the consulting firm Econviews points out regarding the current price: “Although it is not a disaster, the soybeans of 2008, when the crisis with the field occurred, measured at today’s prices, would be almost US$900. Compared to him 2023 average, soybeans fell 14% in nominal terms or 17% in real terms. It is not a minor loss.”
Likewise, the Econviews document adds: “Wheat prices also fell sharply and corn somewhat less so. The terms of trade are not so bad in absolute terms, but they also reflect a more manageable drop of 3% year-on-year in the first quarter of the year, probably something more when we have data for the second quarter.”
What happens to the Central Bank reserves
Dollar purchases by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic plummeted during Juneto the point that, with consolidated figures as of the 24th, the monetary authority was barely able to buy US$74 million in the month, although it has accumulated a positive balance of more than US$17,000 million since the arrival of Javier Milei to the Government. This dynamic is extremely dependent on agricultural settlements.
““We consider that the pace of agricultural liquidation will not accelerate much more than the current level.”states a report from the broker Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI). The study indicates that the very low cost of leverage (repo rate at 40% TNA), added to the prospect of exit from the stocks, conspires against liquidation.
