Hear
Javier Milei was able to admit that his meteoric rise in power occurred as a result of a “triple carom”. Or he usually preaches that “Victory does not depend on the number of soldiers, but on the forces that come from heaven”. From now on, the President will also be able to use these aphorisms to illustrate the reasons that allowed the Government to win its first victory in Congress, six months after the change of leadership.
After weeks of hardships, internal fights and frustrated negotiations, Milei managed to save the Base Law with an agonizing tiebreaker that forced the vice president and head of the body to intervene, Victoria Villarruel. In this way, the LLA leader avoided facing the precipice at the start of a crucial phase of his administration. The thing is that a scenario of defeat could lead to a serious institutional crisis or a tremor in the markets.
The night in which the Upper House approved Milei’s set of economic laws was full of surprises, intrigues and rudeness. The libertarian conquest is not only explained because The Government was forced to make dozens of concessions –there were strategic changes in the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI) and money laundering – to close busy agreements, but because Milei had unexpected support of circumstantial allies in the Senate.
An x-ray of the votes shows that Martín Lousteau (UCR), Maximiliano Abad (UCR), Natalia Gadano (Alliance for Santa Cruz), José Carambia (Alliance for Santa Cruz), Carolina Moisés (UxP), Lucila Crexell (JxC), Mónica Silva (Together We Are Río Negro) , Carlos Espínola (Frente Todos), Edgardo Kueider (Federal Unit), Guillermo Andrada (FDT) and Pablo Daniel Blanco (UCR)among others, were pendulum players.
All of them They did not have a defined voting pattern. In other words, They appealed to a double game to establish their political positions and graduate the level of approach or distance from the Casa Rosada..
Depending on the topic under consideration or the stage of the debate, the pendulum senators dealt a hard blow to the Casa Rosada, where the lamentations began to circulate due to the setback suffered by central chapters of the tax reform, such as profits, pension moratorium, assets personal. On the other hand, in other battles of the long session, the “swing” allies helped Milei gather a slim majority of accessions, either by action or omission. Therefore, the photo of the results is confusing.
By case, Lousteau, who voted against the Bases Law and, thus, distanced himself from the rest of the radical group, collaborated with Milei with a decisive contribution in the construction of the quorum, the first transcendental battle that the ruling party won on Wednesday. Those close to the head of the UCR boast that he rejected the Kirchnerism polls to devise a strategy aimed at “overturning” the approval of the reforms. “If we made an agreement with Kirchnerism, Milei today had no law”, they point out a regular interlocutor of Lousteau, who clashes with the governors Alfredo Cornejo either Gustavo Valdes, promoters of the cooperative wing of the UCR. Despite this gesture, Lousteau, who had prepared his own opinion, voted against the delegation of powers, the emergencies or the RIGI. Of course: he generally approved the fiscal package. Then he rejected Personal Assets and Profits. His detractors at the UCR believe that he gave quorum or generally accompanied the fiscal package for preserve the link with Maximiliano Pullaro from Santa Fe, the only governor aligned with Evolución. They also speculate that he is thinking about the Buenos Aires team in 2025 and is evaluating an alliance with Leandro Santoro, through the capital’s PJ.
In recent days, Lousteau muttered anger at the Government for the leak of the meeting with Francos and the transfer of funds to the UBA, where Buenos Aires radicalism pulls the strings. Was he left at a dead end after that frustrated approach or did he decide to confront Milei with an eye on the electoral scheme of the midterm elections?
Abad also played his game and tried to place himself in third position on the radical map. While Cornejo and Valdés, who are suffering from financial asphyxiation due to the recession and the political threat of Milei in their territories, pushed the bloc to accompany the Casa Rosada, and Lousteau wanted to be a standard bearer of the resistance without blockades, Abad tried to send signals to the electorate and the Government. On the one hand, he showed that he did not intend to create obstacles and voted in general favor of the basic law and the fiscal set. At the same time, he rejected delegation of powers – he maintained the tradition of the UCR, which only endorsed an extension in favor of Mauricio Macri in social matters –, the restitution of Profits – due to the effect of the adjustment on the middle class – and demanded changes in the RIGI – limitations and nods to the national industry – or the inclusion of the social monotax. The ruling party also relented in the financing of public works being carried out in the provinces, under pressure from Guadalupe Tagliaferri (Pro), who also achieved changes in money laundering.
Movements on the sand table Guillermo FrancosChief of Staff, and Santiago Caputo, the guardian of the story, contemplated the surprise factor. Even hours before the start of the marathon session, Francos recognized that the ruling party was facing a very tight scenario and did not hide his fear that an unforeseen move would bring down key articles, such as the delegation of powers to the President.
It seems that the Government managed to save that transcendental article for Milei’s economic program by a miracle. In fact, Carambia and Gadano, who respond to the governor Claudio Vidal, voted against the reforms, but were absent from the vote on the basic law in particular. That mysterious move It allowed the ruling party to approve the delegations, which Abad or Lousteau rejected. In the dialogue opposition they suspect that Carambia and Gadano negotiated to be absent as a result of the negotiation with Francos for the mining royalties –The increase from 3% to 5% was maintained. Then, both returned to the venue to endorse the money laundering and the moratorium. Time and movement, key variables in the execution of a crucial vote. “The Government ran from behind, but threatened to take away the royalties for the rudeness of the quorum; That’s why I think they ended up giving a hand.”ventures a Senate source familiar with the conversations. Elusive, Carambia and Gadano appealed for strategic silence after the session.
Blanco (UCR) was surprised by supporting the delegation of powers, since he had anticipated that he would not accompany that article. In his speech he highlighted that they had managed to pressure Milei to withdraw Argentine Airlines, Correo and RTA from the list of companies to be privatized. You may also offer in your district the elimination of the article 111which enabled the Executive Branch to increase public resources by up to 2% of GDP through the suppression or modification of exemptions and tax expenses and tax benefits. It was a threat to him industrial promotion regime of Tierra del Fuegowhich is plagued by misgivings and political interests, although the Government rules out its eventual elimination with the argument that it is an “acquired right.” Will the deputies of the Civic Coalition and We Make the Federal Coalition insist on that article, which puts pressure on Milei and Luis Caputo? That’s what radical priests discount. Challenges for libertarians in the three-cushion billiards of the current political board.
To build the cushion of votes that allowed him to build the first legislative victory, Milei appealed to the well-known recipes of the “caste.” He negotiated agreements with governors and provincial leaders, opened channels of dialogue to agree on modifications and even appealed to the government apparatus to persuade the undecided with promises of coveted positions in exchange for help.
By case, Lucila Crexell, who had her appointment as ambassador to UNESCO on track, voted in line with the ruling party. The Peronists Kueider (Entre Ríos) and Espínola (Corrientes)) were the target of Cristina Kirchner’s criticism, they supported the basic law and the fiscal package, but rejected key chapters, such as Profits. Silva’s pendulum game (Together We Are Río Negro) was also decisive in the fall of Profits or Personal Assets. Moisés, meanwhile, surprised by supporting the RIGI, Profits, the moratorium and money laundering.
Milei now faces the second half of the year with the relief of having overcome a decisive test of fire in the Upper House, where the PJ has imposed its capacity for influence since the return of democracy. However, she will have to make lasting agreements in Congress if she does not want to depend on a carom to show signs of ability to implement the government program. “We are facing an unpredictable government and there is no clear line to oppose. We are in a game of three forces, no longer two,” portrays an experienced representative of the dialogue wing of the UCR.
