Last Sunday June 24 It was held the election of mayor in Río Cuarto and Javier Milei, who in that district obtained 73.25% of the votes as a candidate for president of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) in the November 2023 runoff, did not have a competitive list.
The candidate Mario Lamberghini It was presented with the seal of the Libertarian Party, which is not organic within LLA, obtained almost 7% of the votesa meager result similar to that of the majority of candidates related to the current ruling party in the gubernatorial and mayoral elections in 2023.
This local result cannot be extrapolated to national trends, but it warrants an update about how Milei currently measures in the province of Córdoba, where it reached 74% of the votes in November of last year.
According to Social Pulse survey held this month in our province, 54% have a positive opinion of his management vs. 42% who have a negative opinion (graph above); Thus, the favorable rating shows a favorable balance of 12 percentage points but is 20 pp below the result of the second round 7 months ago, while the negative rating exceeds by about 16 pp the flow added by Unión por la Patria ( UP) in the same instance (almost 26%).
For its part, Feedback Group focused on the metropolitan area of Córdoba and measured the image of the national government not in a polarized way but with the “regular” response category: in this case, 46% rated positively, 30% average and 22% negatively (chart above).
The 22% negative image is in the same order of magnitude as the 25.95% that UP added in November 2023 in our province. If fair is considered not as a neutral response but as a first level of discomfort, the result is 46% vs 52% (fair + bad) and the balance is unfavorable by 6 pp.
When it is not management that is measured but the president, according to Pulso Social, Milei reaches 56% positive vs 42% negative (graph above), resulting in a favorable balance of 14 pp. Thus, it measures slightly better than its management, but the difference between variables is not statistically significant. Among the other official figuresPatricia Bullrich measures the same as the presidentthe vice president has a similar positive but less negative image (favorable balance of 19 pp), while Minister Luis Caputo presents the tightest balance: 4 pp, technical tie.
According to FeedbacklThe positive image of Milei is 47%, with a regular one of 27% and a negative one of 23% (graph above). In this case, the accumulated discomfort (fair + poor) rises to 50%, resulting in an unfavorable balance of just 3 pp, which implies a technical tie.
Finally, The most favorable measurement for Milei in June is that of CB Consultora: almost 65% positive vs almost 32% negative (graph above), which shows a favorable balance of 33.1 pp.
In this case, his favorable image is 9.25 pp below the number of votes he achieved in the 2023 runoff.
In summary:
- Regarding the percentage of votes he achieved in the second round last year, President Milei has a positive image that exceeds 50%, but It is between 9 pp and 18 pp below in the surveys that measure this variable in a polarized way, such as Social Pulse and CB
- On the other hand, according to Grupo Feedback, which measures this variable with three segmentations, His positive image is below 50% and is in a technical tie with the accumulated discontent
- The difference between his image as a figure and that of his management is not statistically significant.
