Since the hangover from the first Pan American Games held in Chile in October 2023, a major sporting event that was celebrated as a national holiday, where the good organization stood out, President Gabriel Boric’s approval rating has not been in such good health. This Sunday it chained its eighth weekly rise, according to the Cadem survey, reaching 36%. Disapproval, in turn, has been falling until it touched 57%, the lowest figure in the last eight and a half months. In the four previous administrations, led by Michelle Bachelet and Sebastián Piñera, no president registered such levels of support in the same period (almost two and a half years of management). The new scenario also arises when those who feel optimistic about the future of Chile (38%) exceed those who are more pessimistic (36%), after more than a year.
The oxygen tank after a complex first half comes in the run-up to the municipal elections next October, a key thermometer for the presidential elections of 2025. For Roberto Izikson, director of the Cadem polling firm, the two-month rise in approval is due to three factors. The main one, in his opinion, is that the relationship of the Boric Government with public opinion, unlike any other, is anchored to the electoral dimension. “This Government had a cleavage, the exit plebiscite of the first constituent process [en septiembre de 2022], where 38% voted approve and 56% rejected.” Izikson points out that those elections occurred seven months into his mandate, when previous Administrations, in general, face an election in the third of four years. Different crises such as the economic one, the pardons, the Conventions case or the murder of three police officers caused his adherents to withdraw their support, but that structural floor is re-aligning with the Government.
The faithful base has been quantified differently by specialists. The analyst Roberto Méndez, for example, in October of last year was surprised with the unconditional support of a segment of voters with the president: “The Government is playing for its 30%, for that hard left that has consolidated,” he said. to THE COUNTRY. “Boric has remained at 30% despite everything. He is immune.”
The second reason to explain the good streak is that the macro and microeconomic conditions, according to Izikson, are objectively better than in the last five years (since the social outbreak of 2019) and that has injected optimism into the citizens who, although still His pockets are tight, he now has more possibilities to spend on goods and services, as has been seen. 38% of those surveyed consider that Chile is on the right path, the highest figure in two years.
The economy is one of the main concerns of Chileans and in recent weeks there has been an increase in the price of copper (4.5 dollars per pound, 15% increase so far this year), which has improved the spirit of the business community. And despite the fact that the Central Bank raised inflation projections last week, which would reach 4.2% at the end of 2024, Chile has improved its growth expectations: GDP is expected to grow between 2.25 and 3, 0% this year. The approval of the Minister of Finance Mario Marcel (57%) and that of the Economy, Nicolás Grau (43%), rose 10 points compared to the April Cadem.
Finally, Izikson argues, Chileans have begun to accept and adapt to the circumstances. “There is a process in which nothing can be worse than what we experienced before: the constitutional uncertainties are in the past, there is economic stability with a positive trend…” And what about crime, drug trafficking and immigration? “That is the great pain, but it takes too much time and there is an adaptation process. It has tended to moderate, a series of projects that are on the right track have been approved for a year. I’m not saying that it is at all under control, but we accept this new reality and we adapt to it,” says the public opinion specialist, who adds that 57% of Chileans also disapprove of the Government.
An emotional “inflection”
Cristián Valdivieso, director of the Criteria polling company, wrote a column in Ex Ante in which he pointed out that the political drift of this emotional inflection is that citizens “are no longer content with blaming the Government for everything and question the idea that other rulers would achieve radical change.” “Meanwhile, citizens look at the opposition and, although they want to believe them, they do not have much faith in them. He evaluates her poorly, even worse than the Government. He sees her disoriented and divided, fighting for hegemony and, above all, hungry for power, waiting for her turn,” the analyst assures in his column.
Presidential tours, in addition, are usually well received by citizens. 73% consider that they strengthen Chile’s image abroad. And President Boric has just arrived from a trip to Europe in which he participated in the Summit for Peace in Ukraine, held in Switzerland, and held meetings with the French President, Emmanuel Macron, and the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to encourage investment in non-conventional renewable energies. This, in parallel to a string of firm statements on international issues that seem to have identified citizens.
In recent weeks, the Boric Government has made news for warning the Argentine Administration of Javier Milei that if they did not remove some solar panels installed in Chilean Patagonia, the Executive would do so (the neighboring country has already removed them). Also for the firm tone against the insults of the Venezuelan Government of Nicolás Maduro in the context of the kidnapping and murder in Santiago, four months ago, of the Chavista dissident, Ronald Ojeda.
Regarding the possible impact that this new scenario of approval of the Boric Government in the municipal elections may have, the presidential environment rules out making a linear reading. They do believe that the ruling party will begin to do better than what public opinion reflects so far, but that a victory for the mayor of Maipú, Tomás Vodanovic, of the Frente Amplio, for example, will not respond to the rise in support for the Executive in the last eight weeks. For Izikson, the progressive rise in approval shows – if it is maintained and there is no crisis in between – that the municipal elections are not guaranteed for the right and that they need to bring the best candidates and have a good strategy. If Mario Desbordes, candidate for mayor of Santiago from the traditional right-wing coalition Chile Vamos, is defeated by community leader Irací Hassler, from the Communist Party, “it will affect the presidential candidacy of Evelyn Matthei,” warns the analyst about the favorite of the sector to reach La Moneda in 2025.
Subscribe here to the EL PAÍS Chile newsletter and receive all the key information on current events in the country.
