The economist Elena Alonso said the recent blue’s rise is linked to the lowering of the interest rate, “given that given the returns on fixed terms, people feel safer hedging themselves in dollars“. It should be remembered that some fixed-term rates are already below 30%, and savers are moving to hoarding in dollars.
Alonso comments that, in addition, they began to talk more about dollarization, which generates protection, fear and uncertaintyleading people to take refuge in the dollar, which “has always made us feel safe.”
“This uncertainty tells us that by June we could see an increase but also relative stability,” the economist assured this medium Federico Glusteinand predicted that for the next few days “a slightly bullish position”, “but not a jump since the difference with the MEP is almost 10% and with the CCL 7%. Could do carry trade a few days and then go down, waiting for the next Treasury tender and placing in an instrument with a higher rate such as Lecap”.
Meanwhile, the financial analyst, Christian Butlerpointed out that May could be the first month of the management of Javier Milei in which the dollar beats inflation and the rate. Although, he classified it as a “partial recovery”since in the previous months it rose 15% while inflation was approximately 70% (65% January-April + 5% estimated in May).
Regarding the political sphere, as explained Alejandro Bianchifounder of AsesorDeInversiones.com, also pushed up the Dolar blue the possibility that the Law Bases don’t go out for the famous May Pact and that it could be postponed to June or July, according to the president Javier Mileiwhich generated “some kind of fear in the market”.
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Regarding a possible exchange delay, Alonso indicated that there was very high inflation in dollar terms due to the inflation in pesos that occurred in the first months of the year and in December. “This may generate the perception of a cheap dollar compared to this situation, but I do not see the possibility of the Government making a devaluation increase, especially with inflation on the decline,” he highlighted.
In this context, Alonso considered that the rearrangement of costs and sales prices is being left in the hands of companies so that they seek to be more competitive. He also suggested that the State should intervene by reducing taxes to give them relief, but he does not believe that this will happen through an adjustment in the exchange rate.
In relation to the rate and level of the dollar, Leo Anzalone, director of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC), observed that it is, at least, a collateral result that is good for the Government. The problem is not the official dollar, he explains, which he believes will continue with a crawling peg of 2% per month, nor the blue. “Here what you have to observe are the financiers, because they are the least confident.”
“So, every time the rate falls, the movements occur there, the one to observe is the CCL. Why is it a beneficial collateral result? Because every time there is a cut, the CCL rises a little, which is the that looks at the countryside, since there it liquidates 20%, if the countryside liquidates, the government gets dollars”, noted the economist.
