Buenos Aires – After led the rise in fixed income worldwide in 2024, the Argentine bonds have been having a 2025 rearrangement, in which the country risk played minimums of 561 and maximums of 993. But after a positive April, it now moves around 730 units. In that context of high volatility, Bloomberg Line consulted market experts what their preferences are in Argentine bonds in dollars and pesos and the reasons why they choose a positioning or another.
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ADCAP preferences Financiero Grupo
“We continue to recommend positioning themselves in sovereign bonds hard dollar older durationespecially the Global 2035 (GD35), waiting for an upward market, based on the Central Bank commitment to buy dollars to meet the net reserves goal agreed with the IMF, ”said a broker report ADCAP Financial Group.
The study projects a 23% return to the end of the year. “In the short term, We expect a compression of 85 basic pointswhich should happen if international markets are stabilized, ”adds Adcap Grupo Financiero.
However, Given the apparent government of the government to prioritize the disinflation process, leaving the accumulation of reservations in the background, to buy only on the band of the band, the ADCAP analysts considered that this should favor bonds in pesos (measured in dollars) Above dollar bonds (which require accumulation of reservations).
“Seasonality should play in favor of the government’s thesis: The entry of dollars in May for the harvest should exceed the demand and, without purchases from the central, The official exchange rate should go to Ars $ 1,000 ″concludes the ADCAP document. In this context, the firm analysts led by Javier Timerman They recommended bonds in pesos“They should pay better than dollar bonds in the coming weeks “.
“We see value in all alternatives in pesosbut we prefer long bonce (TZXD6 and TZXD7), that they should capture the whole upside and cover the risk of the new exchange regime “they suggested. From ADCAP Grupo Financiero They project that these bonds exceed bonds in dollars between 10% and 25% until the end of the yeara good part in the short term.
What bonds choose Facimex Securities
The broker FACIMEX VALUES published a document in which he divided his fixed income portfolio hard dollar as follows:
- 40% in sovereign bonds (GD41 and GD35).
- 30% in subsoberan bonds (Santa Fe 2027, Tierra del Fuego 2030, Córdoba 2029 and Mendoza 2029).
- 30% in corporate (Vista Energy 2035, Telecom 2031 and YPF Luz 2032).
The base scenario of FACIMEX VALUES CONTAINS THAT Argentina will recover access to the market this yearoperating towards the end of the year with spreads between the risk country of emerging (330 basic points) and the emerging high -performance countries (459 basic points).
In this context, The firm analysts consider that the long -term bonds, such as the GD41 and the GD35, would be the ones that would show the greatest total returns towards the end of the year due to its longer duration and high convexity. They also estimate that the yields of these instruments could be even higher in a more optimistic scenario, in which Argentina manages to converge towards the Brazilian curve, as happened in the 2016-2017 period.
In a more adverse environment, where the country fails to recover access to the market and must continue to face maturities with reservationsthe firm indicates that current rates (current yields) and the minor parities of these bonds would provide them with a protection comparable to that of the short -term bonds.
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In the sub-sobran segment, FACIMEX highlights the solid foundations and high coverage of the Santa Fe 2027 (SF27D) bond. According to the firm’s analysis, the province presents a negative net debt, a clear maturity profile and fiscal surplus, which positions it in the first place of the internal provincial fiscal-financial solidity ranking.
As a complement to positioning, analysts also identify value in Tierra del Fuego 2030 (TFU27), Córdoba 2029 (CO27D) and Mendoza 2029 (PMM29). For profiles with greater risk tolerance, Jujuy 2027 (Jus22) bonus could represent an opportunity.
As to corporate debtthe D strategyE facimex values focuses on high quality credits with maturities after 2030. In this universe, the firm prioritizes companies with solid operational performance, low level of leverage and adequate coverage indicators. Under these criteria, house analysts identify opportunities in Energy 2035 (vscto), Telecom 2031 (TLCMO) and YPF Luz 2032 (YFCJO).
Regarding the pesos universe, Facimex values has a portfolio for cash managment composed of 60% by the letter Lartam (M31L5) and another 40% by two LECAP (S30ys and S18J5)
Meanwhile, the portfolio looking for a Total return in pesos Facimex values is composed 50% per cer bonds (TZXM6, TZX26, TX26), 30% per nominal (T1JO5 and DUAL TTJ26) and 20% in floating (Letam M31L5).
Finally, according to facimex values, Wallets with coverage objectives should prioritize strip And del Bopreal 2027 (BPOA7). As of Wednesday, this instrument incorporates an early rescue option in pesos to the A3500 exchange rate, in favor of the fork, exercised on any business day with T+2 settlement until its expiration.
From the perspective of the analysts of the Bolsa house, this feature allows obtaining higher yields to the synthetic built with LECAP, offering at the same time a significantly greater flexibility thanks to the possibility of exercising the option at any time. In addition, they emphasize that this strategy does not imply resigning liquidity and allows avoiding the cost associated with rolleo of positions.
This suggests capital Markets Argentina (CMA)
In the debt segment in hard currency, Capital Markets Argentina (CMA) Consider that Bonar 2030 (A30) represents the most attractive alternative due to its rapid repayment calendar. Also, from the firm they stand out to Global 2035 as one of the most appreciation potential options (upside) In the long part of the curve, especially for investors willing to tolerate higher levels of volatility, in a scenario of falling country risk.
Besides, CMA points out that Bopreals constitute an adequate option for those who seek less exposure to volatility. Within that framework, the entity analysts stand out to Bopreal 2026 as a conservative alternative within this universe.
As for investments in pesos, from the firm they observe that Fixed rate curves have presented high volatility in recent weeks. However, they project that these curves will tend to normalize, maintaining a decreasing slope. With monthly effective rates (TEM) above 2.5%, CMA He maintains that the long stretch of the curve can offer attractive returns in dollars if an inflation deceleration is confirmed after the initial impact derived from the exchange unification.
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Finally, analysts of Capital Markets Argentina also see value in bonds adjusted by CER In the medium term, which currently offer real rates close to 10%. In particular, they mention the TZX26 as an interesting option for moderate risk profiles.
