The dollar completely reversed its initial fall this Friday, returning from the holiday with news that confirm a certain negotiating disposition between Washington and Beijing, but then being found with figures from the labor market that fired the interest rates in the United States.
First he collapsed to $ 938, but at the end the dollar was at $ 949.9 and with a $ 1.69 rise on Bloomberg screens. The fall was significantly moderated in the last three hours of the session, which are low in liquidity, and on a day of lower amounts traded after the holiday of yesterday Thursday. With this, The dollar rose $ 14.2 since last Friday and broke with three weeks down.
Internationally, Copper Comex advanced 1.3% to US $ 4.69 per poundwhile he dollar index It fell 0.3% to 100 points. This last indicator, which seeks to measure the strength of the global dollar, significantly regulated its performance.
Still waiting for a cut
The non -agricultural payrolls of April threw a bucket of cold water into the US fixed income. The news of a more resilient job than expected to trigger increases of more than 10 base points (PB) at this time of treasure yields to two yearssensitive to what is expected of the Federal Reserve.
“As they were internalized, it is interpreted that while the data is not bad, they are not good either, because they leave the door open to the Fed to have much more caution. That is why the market begins to discount that there will be no cuts in June, but would start in July. The report leaves a stable labor market, with the unemployment rate several months at 4.2%. So There we saw a recovery from dollar index That, in my view, the situation ends up a bit “said a DF The Chief Analyst of Admirals, Felipe Sepúlveda.
The figures “challenged the expectations of economic fragility left by the negative report of GDP,” said the head of construction and portfolio strategy for the US in Janus Henderson, Lara Castleton. “Unfortunately for those who want lower rates, this rhythm will make it difficult for the Fed to drive cuts at the beginning of the year. Fixed income markets are adjusting again to the narrative of ‘higher rates for longer’ “Said the executive.
Potential dialogue
First thing of the day, what dominated was tariff optimism. The China Ministry of Commerce reported today that The Chinese authorities are “evaluating” the recent messages sent by the US in which the desire to establish conversations about the commercial relationship between both powers is expressed.
“The fact that there is a certain approach allows The weight shows that strength that Chilean assets have exhibited in recent times “the General Manager of Patrimore, Sergio Tricio, said early. “This impulse of markets is associated with greater tranquility with respect to the commercial war, which is an important factor,” he explained.
He added that the latest growth figures in Chile would also have positively influenced weight. The IMACEC of March rose 0.8% monthly (versus 1% in the Bloomberg survey), and 3.8% Interanual (Better than 3.1% forecast). This comes after the good performances that had already previously shown sectoral figures.
But the outbreaks of optimism on this side were frustrated. “While the IMACEC could have also generated some strength in the Chilean weight, There are doubts about the future impact of tariffs. That ends up generating uncertainty, and more than strengthening Chilean weight, it ended up leaving it flat, ”said Sepúlveda.
China began a five -day holiday yesterday, so the translated amounts have remained lower than usual not only in Chile, but in several markets.
