It is no secret and not even a revelation. Which donald trump just done about Ukraine is to remind everyone that nothing having to do with the United States should be taken for granted before the US elections in November and that includes, of course, the future of the war in Ukraine.
Follow Trump has promised tough measures on immigration including a very substantial increase in deportations. No one should doubt that it will be like this and very soon those plans will also begin to leak.
He has also promised to change trade policy reinforcing tariffs for those who intend to export to the United States. No one should doubt that this will be the case, although these plans will be more difficult to implement due to the risk of increasing inflation in the United States.
He has promised to strengthen the powers of the presidency in the domestic balance of powers. And no one should doubt that it will be like that – especially in everything that has to do with the state prosecutor’s office.
And finally, in foreign policy has promised a turn that will go in two directions and a philosophy: one direction will be to relax ties with traditional allies – especially with NATO – and another to make decisions in a more unilateral manner, and all of this with a transactional philosophy, that is, the United States focusing more on interests and less on principles.
All of this applied to Ukraine translates into what Trump himself has implied for months and now his former advisors who were on his National Security Council during his presidency reveal.
Trump, they say, immediately would force Ukraine and Russia to negotiate. It is obviously much easier for Russia to agree to negotiate because it already has several Ukrainian provinces occupied in addition to Crimea.
Ukraine would have no choice He had to accept a work table because, otherwise, he would be left without American military aid and would fall in a matter of weeks.
Once negotiating, Trump says he could force Russia to agree with a mix of promises and threats. The basic promise would be that Ukraine would not join NATO – which Russia already takes for granted… – and the most important threat would be that the United States would arm Ukraine even more if there is no agreement – which Russia does not believe and with reason because it is unthinkable that Trump would arm Ukraine more than Biden has already done.
That is, in this negotiation that Trump would impose Ukraine has in principle much more to lose than Russia. Russia could assume, at least in the short term, not achieving all its objectives in Ukraine – but it would achieve recognition of what Europe fears most: that invading internationally established borders could end up being assumed by the world.
That would force Europe to redouble its military spending -depending, probably much more on American suppliers- and would allow the United States to spend much less on military defense in Europe…
The reality is that no one expects Russia to lose and simply withdraw in the short or medium term. Everyone assumes that we are in a war of attrition.
In this war of attrition the administration Biden I would be willing to continue waiting for Russia to weaken first.
But an administration trump I would be willing to solve it as soon as possible, looking more for what to gain and less for what principles to defend.
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