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WASHINGTON.- A president has never debated a former president. The same duel from the previous election was never repeated. There have never been two candidates so old on the scene. And never have two presidential candidates faced each other so early, before the campaign formally begins. For this – and for everything that is at stake – the presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump already occupies a unique place in history.
Biden and Trump will go head to head in the first of the two presidential debates scheduled before the November 5 elections. Since the last time they debated, on October 22, 2020, days before the election in which Biden defeated Trump, they have never seen each other again. This year, and for the first time since 1988, the Commission on Presidential Debates was sidelined, a return to the model of the last century, when responsibility for organizing the clash fell to the television networks. The first debate will be in the hands of CNN, and the second will be sponsored by ABC.
The duel, which promises to paralyze the country and capture the attention of the rest of the world, offers several unprecedented condiments, along with a special significance.
“This is the first televised debate between two people who have held the presidency: a sitting president and the previous one. It is also the first debate not held by a bipartisan or nonpartisan body,” said historian Julian Zelizer. “And finally, this is a debate where there are no predictable barriers. “There is not even any type of limit expected to what is possible, since Trump has broken all those conventions,” he noted.
Since the first televised presidential debate, in 1960, between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, confrontations between the candidates have been an unbreakable tradition of campaigns in the United States. But its real impact on the outcome is the subject of an old – pardon the redundancy – debate: there were candidates who did poorly and still won, such as George W. Bush against Al Gore, or Barack Obama in his first clash with Mitt Romney , or Trump himself, in 2016, and candidates who took advantage of the opportunity to move the needle, such as Kennedy, Ronald Reagan against Jimmy Carter, in 1980, or Bill Clinton in 1992 against George HW Bush and Ross Perot.
This year, the debate is more relevant for two reasons. The first is that Biden and Trump are locked in a virtual tie, according the surveys. Trump appears in front in most of the swing states that will ultimately decide who reaches 270 votes in the electoral college to be proclaimed president-elect, but that advantage is far from wide. The contest is open. The second reason is that, unlike previous elections, The first debate will be held before the campaign formally starts, with party conventions, and not at the end. In fact, in all previous elections the first debate was held in September or October, never in June. The impression Biden and Trump leave in their first joint appearance will influence the rest of the race much more. For both candidates, the risk is much higher.
Historically, whenever there is a president behind one of the lecterns, the debates tend to favor his opponent. It is easier to attack a management than to defend it, especially if that management has weak flanks, and in addition the president usually arrives less sharp, without the agility and ferocity of the rival who arrives after having triumphed in the party primaries, which are usually marathon. . But now there will be two administrations under discussion: the Trump government and that of Biden. And Trump never debated this year: he got rid of all his rivals without confronting them directly in an atypically short Republican election. Both nuances erase, at least on paper, that apparent advantage for Trump.
This debate will also be different from its predecessors because the two rivals are the two oldest candidates in history. The health and mental clarity of both – but more so that of Biden – is at the top of the minds of voters, particularly undecided voters.
A majority of the country believes that both Biden, 81, and Trump, 78, are too old to endure the rigors of the presidency. Biden and Trump have had their share of missteps in recent months, and both will come under unique scrutiny, and not just because of their advanced age. Biden is famous for his gaffe file, and Trump for his incoherence in presenting ideas. But the magnifying glass will be more on Biden, who has lost his back and has become more rigid over the years. The debate gives him a chance to show that he can go toe-to-toe for 90 minutes live against Trump, and dispel any doubts about his strength and acumen.
In any case, the bar is set quite low, so both can gain a lot with a little.
The rules of debate also run from history. There will be no audience, and no interruptions: the microphones will only be on when it is each candidate’s turn to speak. A change from the first clash between Biden and Trump in 2020, when Trump’s pile of interruptions left the only phrase that is remembered from that duel: “Will you shut up?” Evidence that preparation, rules, formats and discussions can end up being ephemeral when a reaction steals the night.
