This Thursday night the first will take place presidential debate in the USfacing the elections that will face Joe Biden, who is seeking re-election, and Donald Trump, who wants to return to the White House.
To analyze this first crossing organized by the CNN signal, Newsweek Argentina spoke with Eduardo AmadeoArgentine ambassador to the United States during the government of Eduardo Duhalde, former national deputy, important leader of the PRO and a specialist in international diplomatic relations.
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Firstly, he pointed out that it is “a very unique debate because there are two presidents of the United States (a president and a former president)” and because They are both “in an advanced stage of their lives”. According to his vision, age will play a key role in the cross accusations, as it is already doing in the campaign.
“Each of them has some handicap. President Biden’s is his age; Trump’s, the trials and everything he is facing right now. This means that they are not two presidents who come fresh, as we could have seen in other moments, in which the contenders (or at least one of them) were totally free of burdens,” he said, adding: “People are going to looking with a quantity, I wouldn’t say of prejudices, but of preventions for these issues.”
For Amadeo, “what is new is that it is a debate outside the formal start of the campaign; Therefore, the result of this debate, if it has one, will greatly mark the paths, weaknesses and strengths of both.” “That is why Biden has dedicated so much time to this debate, because he leads the way,” he considered.
GLOBAL IMPACT
According to the former ambassador to the US, “the debate is taking place at a very special moment in the world.”
“The American economy is doing well. Let’s say Biden might be happy with his economy, but he has a lot of acceptance problems regarding his position on the Gaza war. This was a surprise, because it was not expected that there would be such a strong reaction from the average American citizen,” he warned.
However, he stressed that “on the other hand, Trump has had an extremely harsh attitude towards the rest of the world: he is not a friendly president”, so “we have to see how he reacts to that issue.”
Furthermore, he asserted that “It is obvious that the world is going to listen to what they both say on the issue of Russia.”. Regarding this, he detailed: “And not only about the war in Ukraine, but also about Putin’s clear decision to move forward in forming new alliances to condition the United States and the West in general. Putin’s visit to North Korea was a very strong signal that he wants to put together a new multilateral order. Therefore, for me it is very important to know what Biden and Trump think about this.”
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“Evidently, the international issue is going to have its weight in the debate, because there have also been very brutal reactions in the United States. And it is that This international issue is not foreign to the average American. There is a lot of sensitivity with this topic. Then we see what everyone says about it,” explained the leader.
IMMIGRATION AND LATIN AMERICA
Another key issue, according to Amadeo, is the problem of illegal immigrationwhich has been setting the internal agenda for decades, especially in the southern states of the country, on the border with Mexico.
“Biden has gotten tougher on the immigration issue because, apparently, he is seeing that the average American – and especially the Trump voter, who is a more conservative right-wing voter – is taking a tough position on the issue,” Indian.
However, He does not believe that Latin America is part of the discussion. “Latin America is not a central theme, it is not an ‘issue’, as they say in English; It is not an important issue in North American politics.. Even if we don’t like it, it is like that. Trump has not been particularly friendly, and Americans have not been particularly friendly to Latin America. Consequently, I would be surprised if Latin America were present in the debate, except for the immigration issue,” he predicted.
And he stated: “The issue of immigration is a very sensitive issue in the United States and has to do more than anything with the relationship with Mexico. But we are outside these debates. Latin America has its own problems.
THE RELATIONSHIP WITH ARGENTINA
What would it mean for Argentina if Biden wins re-election this year? And a probable return of Trump? For Eduardo Amadeo, “everything depends more on Argentina.”
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“The problem with Argentina is that it has been an unpredictable country. We come from 20 years of Kirchnerism, which has had frankly ridiculous attitudes towards the United States. Let’s remember Alberto Fernández hugging Putin, Kirchnerism’s relationship with Venezuela, etc. Our president Milei’s position with the US makes us a more predictable country. Today Argentina is proposing a line of dialogue with the US that is very positive,” he stated.
In any case, he explained that the relationship with the United States can be approached from very different angles, and that geopolitics has a great influence. “There are other issues regarding our relationship with the United States, such as the presence of China and the attitude towards Russia in the region. It is not for nothing that there are so many North American officials who are coming to the south to counteract or balance China’s intervention. Well used, this is an asset for Argentina: The United States is looking south because China is looking south. And we have to take advantage of it”.
In fact, he maintained that it is an interesting opportunity for Argentina: “Another interesting issue is that There are many North American companies that are leaving China, they are going to Mexico to produce; and Argentina should also be able to take advantage of that”.
DEMOCRACY IN DANGER
In addition to all these topics mentioned by Amadeo, For the first time in the history of the United States, a discussion regarding the democratic order itself is put on the table. began in 1776. The “Trump factor” has shaken the institutions of that country since the attempted takeover of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, when a horde of Trumpist fanatics tried to prevent Congress from validating Biden’s election after the elections. November 2020 elections.
But after years of investigations, trials and even convictions of the participants, Trump has never admitted his guilt nor has he shown remorse.. On the contrary, in recent months he has flirted with the idea of becoming “a dictator” if he prevailed in these elections.
“It is something unprecedented, unexpected. A country that was the flag, the reference of democracy in the world, suddenly had a president who was capable of carrying out a coup d’état, like the one Trump wanted to do when he invaded Congress. And, furthermore, he has not regretted that,” Amadeo analyzed.
And he added: “As Trump is very messianic, He says that the people who vote for him have the right to manage the institutions, something that goes absolutely against North American tradition.. And surely this topic will be in the discussion tonight. I’m talking about respect for the Constitution.”
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This scenario, he said, could influence the strategy that both teams will follow on Thursday night.The average American is very constitutionalist, very respectful of institutions. This for Trump is in principle a liability, because it goes against American tradition. But also an asset, because there are many people who vote for him precisely because of Trump’s character, that invitation to break with everything,” he said.
And he concluded: “It’s going to be interesting to watch: How is Trump going to show himself tonight regarding the Constitution? What I understand is that Biden is undoubtedly going to show himself as part of the best democratic tradition, is going to show respect for the institutions and the Constitution. So, the question is whether Trump is going to continue with his disruptive position or not.”
