Ecuador, in a state of emergency since January after the chaos unleashed by the attack of criminal groups, gave the Yes to strengthening the actions of the armed forces to combat organized crime, the increase in penalties for terrorism and drug trafficking crimes, the possible extradition of Ecuadorians required by international justice and the confiscation of assets of criminals.
However, Noboa, who assumed the presidency last November, suffered a major setback in the two “hook” questions, with which he intended to implement economic reforms that would allow the creation of hourly employment contracts and the application of international arbitration for investment and commercial matters.
Relative victory
“The government manages to consolidate approval for what worked for it, which is this issue of security, but it cannot get out of there. It fails to place more agenda, more proposal or more points in favor outside of security“, explains the political analyst and consultant, Jacobo García, in an interview with DIARIO LAS AMERICAS.
With the results of the votes, García gives a “relative victory” to the young president, since he fulfilled the objective of consolidating the “iron fist” government, which he began to install in January and with which he has achieved high popularity figures.
This also occurs in the face of a pre-electoral year, in which Noboa would be preparing to seek re-election in the presidential elections scheduled for February 9, 2025.
“The instrument of popular consultation, beyond the rights of participatory democracy, It is an instrument that is used for political, electoral purposesto build own capital and mark a turning point,” mentions the analyst.
However, he highlights, the defeat in the two essential questions, which gave him the “opportunity to add another agenda” with which he could “establish a linear and progressive course of government results,” has been a hard blow for the president.
“The expectation they had has not been fulfilledeither. Yes, it is true that there has been an approval of nine out of eleven, that its security agenda continues to be consolidated, but the other results, plus the daily and management problems, such as the power outage that we are suffering daily, are problems “That’s going to take its toll,” he says.
He also points out that the rejection of economic reforms creates two new “inconveniences” for the Noboa government, described as center-left. The first is that an “imaginary” that the president “it does not have an economic plan in favor of the majority” but rather, that he would be “governing with the elites”, in regression of citizen rights.
The second, he continues, “has given life” to Correismo and the indigenous movement, who may feel “strengthened” by this setback by the government in economic matters, one of the main concerns of Ecuadorians.
“They were the two biggest promoters of the No and they have ideological background to the two rejected questions, which join the postulates of these two groups. So, here there is beginning to be a dispute in the future on this issue,” he indicates.
More tools
Noboa, who was elected to complete the mandate of Guillermo Lasso (2021 – 2023) after the cross-death decree, received a country heavily hit by corruption and drug trafficking mafias, which have allowed the establishment of the “narcoterrorism” in state institutions.
The wave of violence facing Ecuador has claimed the lives of a series of political leaders, including the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio; the mayor of Manta, Agustín Intriago; prosecutor César Suárez, who was investigating an armed attack on a television channel in January; and, more recently, the mayor of San Vicente, Brigette García, and the mayors of Portovelo and Camilo Ponce Enríquez, Jorge Maldonado and José Sánchez Reyes, respectively.
After the accolade he received, with an approval of 60% to 70% in nine questions, Noboa assured that he will now have “more tools to fight crime and restore peace to Ecuadorian families”.
From the coastal city of Machala, in the south of the country, the president celebrated the 9-2 “rule” he obtained on Sunday and thanked “the bravery” of Ecuadorians who gave “broad support” to his security policy, which resulted in the capture of Fabricio Colón Pico, leader of the “Los Lobos” ganglinked to the Mexican drug trafficking cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación, who had escaped from prison at the beginning of the years.
“We will not give in a step to violence, corruption and impunity. “We have more tools to judge these crimes and toughen the penalties for their perpetrators,” he asserted.
A challenge
Analyst Jacobo García considers that the president now has “a challenge” ahead of him, in which it will be evaluated whether he manages to “capitalize and give continuity” to his victory on these issues, and if “People are going to settle for security”which will hardly be completely controlled as it is such a “big and structural” problem.
In his opinion, this can become a “boomerang effect”, in which questions will arise if “there are no clear results” in the short term. “The homicide numbers have increased again and, above all, shocking cases such as the murder of mayors. So, this is once again the news of every day and it is going to squeak a little with the government’s narrative,” he mentions.
Added to this is the confrontation against the Citizen Revolution movement, led by the Rafael Correa file (2007 – 2017), after the arrest of former vice president Jorge Glas, sentenced for corruption; and other fronts that he started after differences with the Social Christian Party (PSC) and Construye, which destroyed the political majority that he maintained in Congress.
“You have the options, the ball is in your courtbut there are some management and agenda deficiencies that can take their toll, above all, in a country like this, with so many crises, in which the least expected day any problem explodes in your face, as has happened with power outages,” García emphasizes.
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