Vladimir Putin begins another six-year term and begins a new era of extraordinary power in Russia

Just a few months before completing a quarter century as Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin will put his hand on a copy of the constitution on Tuesday and begin another six-year term as president with extraordinary power.

Since becoming acting president on the last day of 1999, Putin has turned Russia into a monolith: has crushed the political opposition, expelled journalists with aspirations for independence and fostered a growing devotion to conservative “traditional values” that leaves many members of society on the margins.

His influence is so dominant that other officials could not help but submissively step aside when a war started in Ukraine despite expectations that the invasion would mean international isolation and harsh economic sanctions, in addition to costing Russia a high price in the blood of its soldiers.

With that kind of power, what Putin might do in his next term is a daunting question both at home and abroad.

The war in Ukraine, where Russia makes costly and incremental advances on the battlefield, is the main concernand has shown no signs of changing course.

“The war in Ukraine is crucial to his current political project, and I see nothing to suggest that will change. And that affects everything else”said Brian Taylor, a Syracuse University professor and author of “The Code of Putinism,” in an interview with The Associated Press.

“It affects who is in those positions, it affects what resources are available and it affects the economy, it affects the level of repression internally,” he said.

In his State of the Union address in February, Putin vowed to achieve Moscow’s goals in Ukraine and do everything necessary to “defend our sovereignty and the security of our citizens.” He stated that the Russian army has “gained enormous combat experience” and “firmly maintains the initiative and undertakes offensives in a number of places.”

That will have a high cost could monopolize the available money for the great national projects and reforms in education, welfare and the fight against poverty that Putin detailed during much of his two-hour speech.

Taylor suggested that these projects were included in the speech for appearances’ sake rather than to indicate a real intention to carry them out.

Putin “sees himself in the grand historical terms of the Russian lands, putting Ukraine back where it belongs, those kinds of ideas. AND I think that surpasses any more socioeconomic type program.Taylor said.

European countries fear that if the war ends with anything short of total defeat for either side, such as Russia keeping some of the territory it has already captured, Putin may be encouraged to make more military incursions in the Baltic or in Poland.

“Putin may have big ambitions and try to follow up a costly success in Ukraine with a new attack elsewhere,” Harvard international relations professor Stephen Walt noted in Foreign Policy magazine. “But it is also perfectly possible that his ambitions do not go beyond what Russia has gained, at enormous cost, and who has no need or desire to risk more.”

However, Walt noted, “Russia will not be in a position to launch new wars of aggression when the war in Ukraine finally ends.”

That rational concern might not prevail, others noted. Maksim Samorukov of the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia said that “given Putin’s whims and delusions, “Moscow is likely to make counterproductive blunders.”

In a commentary in Foreign Affairs, Samorukov suggested that Putin’s age could affect his judgment.

“At 71 years old (…) being aware of your own mortality undoubtedly affects your decision-making. A growing sense that has a limited time “It undoubtedly contributed to their fateful decision to invade Ukraine,” he said.

Overall, Putin could begin his new mandate with a weaker grip on power than it seems.

“(Russia’s) vulnerabilities are hidden in plain sight. “Now more than ever, the Kremlin makes decisions in a personalistic and arbitrary manner that lacks the most basic controls,” Samorukov added.

Putin is certain to continue his hostility toward the West, which he said in his State of the Union address “would like to do to Russia what it did in many other regions of the world, including Ukraine: bring discord to our home, weaken it from inside”.

Putin’s resistance to the West is manifested not only as indignation over its support for Ukraine, but in what he considers an undermining of Russian moral strength.

Russia banned the so-called LGBTQ+ “movement” last year, whom he called extremist, in what the authorities described as a fight for traditional values, such as those defended by the Russian Orthodox Church against Western influence. The courts also vetoed gender transition.

“I would expect the role of the Russian Orthodox Church to remain quite visible,” Taylor said. She also mentioned the outbreak of outrage on social media following a party hosted by TV presenter Anastasia Ivleeva, where guests were asked to come “almost naked”.

“Other actors in the system understand that Putin likes these things (…) There were people interested in taking advantage of things like that“, said.

Although the opposition and independent media have practically disappeared in the face of Putin’s repressive measures, there is still room for more initiatives to control the Russian information space, such as advancing his plans to establish a “sovereign internet.”

The inauguration took place two days after Victory Day, Russia’s most important secular holiday, which commemorates the capture of Berlin by the Red Army in World War II and the immense hardships of the war. in which the USSR lost about 20 million people.

The defeat of Nazi Germany is a centerpiece of modern Russian identity and to Putin’s justification for the war in Ukraine, which he frames as a comparable struggle.