In a gloomy forecast shared by hundreds of climate scientists most prominent in the world, The Earth is heading towards global warming that will far exceed the internationally agreed limit of 1.5°C.
This projected increase of at least 2.5°C (4.5°F) this century, could have catastrophic results for the humanity and the planet, as revealed by an exclusive survey conducted by Guardian.
Almost 80% of respondentsall members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)predict this severe increase, while almost half present an even worse outlook, with the increase reaching at least 3°C (5.4°F).
IPCC scientists, who are at the forefront of climate change research, They offered the alarming prediction based on advanced climate models and continuous observation of greenhouse gas emission trends.
“This is just the beginning: fasten your seatbelts”warned Jesse Keenan, from Tulane University in the United States.
The panorama that experts describe is almost terrifying, with visions of futures plagued by famine, conflict and mass migration.
“I think that In the next five years there will be serious social disruption,” said Gretta Pecl of the University of Tasmania. “The authorities will be overwhelmed by extreme events after extreme events, food production will be disrupted. “I couldn’t feel greater despair about the future,” she added.
Extreme phenomena such as heat waves, wildfires, floods and storms, will not only become more intense but also more frequent. These events have already begun to manifest with a strength and frequency that surpasses anything known until now, predicting an era of unprecedented natural disasters.
Many of the Scientists express a mix of hopelessness, fury and fear at global inactionparticularly that of governments, who have failed to take effective measures despite overwhelming scientific evidence of accelerated climate change.
The effects that scientists predicted would occur as a result of global climate change are now manifesting: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer and more intense heat waves. Events such as droughts, wildfires and extreme rainfall are occurring faster than previously assessed.
As the planet warms, precipitation becomes more extreme. For every degree the thermometer rises, the air can retain approximately 7% more humidity. This increase in humidity in the atmosphere can produce more destructive flash floods and hurricanesand ironically, stronger snow storms.
Glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, river and lake ice is breaking up earlier each year, and the geographic ranges of many plants and animals are changing. Trees and plants are blooming earlier than usual, clear signs that traditional weather patterns are being altered.
The sea level rise It is another direct consequence of global warming, the result of the melting of land ice and the expansion of sea water as it warms. This phenomenon increases the coastal flooding riskaffecting ecosystems and human communities.
Despite the gloomy projections, there is a unanimous call among scientists to persist in the fight against climate change. Every fraction of a degree that is mitigated could mean a considerable reduction in human suffering. As he emphasizes Peter Cox, from the University of Exeter, Climate change is already dangerous and it will not be “the end of the game” if 2°C is exceeded, a scenario that seems increasingly likely.
The survey also reveals differences in the perception of the climate future between scientists of various ages and genders, as well as between scientists from different continents. Younger scientists tend to be more pessimistic about warming projections compared to their older and male colleagues.
Scientists surveyed by the prestigious British media stated that the failure to adequately address the climate crisis is widely attributed to a lack of political will and to the entrenched interests of corporations, especially the fossil fuel industry.
This criticism is accompanied by a condemnation of inequality and the insufficient aid from rich countries to those most affected by the impacts of climate change in the global south.
Dipak Dasgupta of the Institute of Energy and Resources in New Delhi said: “If the world, incredibly rich as it is, stands by and does too little to address the plight of the poor, we will all lose in the end.”
Many also mentioned inequality and the rich world’s inability to help the poor, who suffer the most from the consequences of climate change. “I expect a semi-dystopian future with a lot of pain and suffering for the inhabitants of the South,” said a South African scientist who preferred not to reveal his name. “The world’s response to date is reprehensible: we live in a time of fools,” he concluded hopelessly.
