By Adriana Robreño
Chief correspondent in Ecuador
The young president arrived at the Carondelet Palace on November 23, 2023, after extraordinary presidential and legislative elections called after his predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, decreed a cross death and dissolved the National Assembly (Parliament).
Since then, the president’s acceptance fell 20 points, after having reached 80 percent approval last January, when he decreed the war against organized crime in the midst of a series of violent events.
Currently, according to the company Comunicaliza, its approval dropped to 59.3 percent, while 63.5 percent of the people surveyed assess the situation in the country negatively.
A Poll by Profiles of Opinion agrees with the drop in the ruler’s acceptance and points out that Noboa’s popularity dropped more than 27 points from January to date and stands at 57.68 percent.
PHOENIX PLAN
The persistence of violent events in Ecuador, despite several declarations of a state of emergency and the declaration of internal armed conflict, calls into question the effectiveness of the so-called Phoenix Plan, a strategy with which the Noboa Government seeks to reduce insecurity rates.
That was one of the main campaign promises of the Chief Executive, who promised to provide law enforcement forces with equipment to be able to act effectively and proposed adding an “intelligence center” for crime prevention.
The application of this strategy became more urgent starting in January 2024, when the action of criminal groups led Noboa to declare the existence of an “internal armed conflict” and consider twenty groups associated with drug trafficking as terrorists.
However, six months later, massacres, hitmen, extortions and other crimes persist, although the Government claims to have reduced crime rates.
Although no one knows for sure what the Fénix Plan consists of, on May 22 the president decreed a new state of emergency in seven provinces and one municipality and reported on the beginning of phase two of his “fight against terrorism in national territory.” ”.
In a video shared on his social networks, the president assured that in January there was widespread chaos in terms of security and in five months his administration managed to “return peace to Ecuadorians, something that had never been achieved before.”
According to the president, the violent events of recent times are proof that narcoterrorist groups have entrenched themselves in certain areas and with the state of emergency the police and military will have more freedom of action.
At the same time, concerns are growing on the part of human rights groups about the excessive use of military force, mainly against “impoverished and racialized people,” and there are reports of torture and ill-treatment in prisons.
REFERENDUM
On April 21, Ecuadorians went to the polls to vote in a popular consultation and referendum promoted by Noboa.
Of the 11 questions posed, the “yes” won in nine and the “no” in two, which for the president was a “rule.”
Voters voted in favor of allowing the support of the Armed Forces in the functions of the National Police to combat organized crime, extradition, increasing sentences for various crimes and serving the entire sanction in prison.
They also approved that security forces can use seized weapons and that the State can be the owner of assets of illicit origin.
Legal experts consider that from this moment on Noboa will have no excuses to put a stop to insecurity, although they warn that the implementation of the consultation proposals will not be of much use if social measures are not adopted to reduce inequality.
On the other hand, Ecuadorians rejected two questions that were considered key, since all of the above could easily be processed in the National Assembly, without the need to spend almost 60 million dollars in the consultative process.
Citizens said No to Ecuador recognizing international arbitration as a method to resolve investment, contractual or commercial disputes and also to the possibility of hourly work contracts.
Social organizations classified the results as a popular victory for saying No to the two proposals that sought to cede sovereignty and increase job insecurity.
ASSAULT ON THE MEXICAN EMBASSY AND OTHER DIPLOMATIC CRISIS
One of the most relevant events in these few months of the Noboa Government was the invasion of the Mexican Embassy in Quito, an action that caused repudiation from the international community.
On April 5, Ecuadorian uniformed officers broke into the Mexican diplomatic headquarters to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, who remained a refugee there and had already received asylum at the time of the assault.
This fact led Mexico to break diplomatic relations with Ecuador and sue the South American country before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) based in The Hague, Netherlands.
This May 23, the highest judicial body of the UN refused to grant Mexico precautionary measures while it resolves the lawsuit, a process that can take several months or even years.
On the list of the Government’s diplomatic frictions, there is also the “Russian scrap” episode.
The Ecuadorian government offered to deliver supposedly unused Soviet weapons to the United States in exchange for new equipment to confront the internal security crisis.
On February 8, Kevin Sullivan, Undersecretary of Western Hemisphere Affairs of the US State Department, acknowledged that this delivery was part of “an arrangement” to transfer military equipment to Ukraine.
According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, the provisions of the contracts specify that the equipment should not be transferred to third parties without Moscow’s consent.
Finally, after weeks of tension that complicated the commercial relationship between Russia and Ecuador, Noboa gave up sending weapons to Washington.
Despite this impasse, it is worth highlighting the consolidation of the relationship with the United States in this period.
In recent months, Ecuador received a visit from senior US officials, such as General Laura Richardson, head of the Southern Command, who assured that her country had a “five-year plan” on security for the Andean nation.
RISE IN VAT, PRICES RISE
The Constitutional Court of Ecuador maintains among its pending proceedings three lawsuits that seek to reverse the increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT), which since April 1 rose from 12 to 15 percent and affects products in the basic basket.
With the measure, included in the Organic Law to Confront the Internal Armed Conflict, the Social and Economic Crisis, Noboa affirms that it seeks to raise sufficient resources to face military and police operations.
The governor minimized the impact of the tax increase, considering that basic foodstuffs, medicines, education and public transportation are not affected, however, they do increase due to the increase in prices of domestic gas and fuel.
In the opinion of professor at the Central University of Ecuador Paúl Córdova, the declaration of internal armed conflict served as an instrument of economic policy, with the increase in VAT, and not as a security policy.
For his part, economist Marcos Flores warned that the increase in VAT is part of the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the country to access new credit, whose technical agreement has already been announced.
Added to this is that Ecuador closed the first quarter of 2024 with an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, which represents an increase of 0.3 points compared to the same period in 2023.
This is without counting informality, a modality in which 54.2 percent of workers work, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC).
OLÓN CASE AND BLACKOUTS COMPLICATE THE MANAGEMENT OF NOBOA
Among the recent scandals unleashed in Ecuador is a real estate project that a company owned by the first lady, Lavinia Valbonesi, intended to build in a protected area of the Olón commune, province of Santa Elena.
Residents of the area and environmental activists protested against the felling and destruction of the mangrove in the so-called Esterillo Oloncito, which since 2001 was declared an “area of protective forest and vegetation.”
The work is from the company Vinazin SA, of which Valbonesi is the main shareholder, and received the environmental registration on December 5, 2023, just days after Noboa took possession.
After the controversy unleashed, which according to the government was promoted by its opponents for political purposes, the company announced the suspension of the real estate project.
Meanwhile, electricity outages returned to complicate the country’s economic and political situation, despite the fact that last January the National Assembly approved the Organic Law of Energy Competitiveness, better known as ‘No More Blackouts Law’, a project proposed by the Executive. from Noboa.
Despite the measure, the blackouts returned in mid-April amid a controversy that led to the dismissal of the Minister of Energy and Mines, Andrea Arrobo, and the complaint against them and 21 other officials before the Attorney General’s Office for alleged crimes. paralysis of a public service and betrayal of the country.
Although energy rationing is suspended for the moment, it is still possible that it will be applied again, according to authorities.
In this way, Noboa reaches his first six months in the presidential chair, involved in problems even with his vice president, Verónica Abad, whom he sent to Israel, and she accuses him of seeking to remove her so that she does not occupy the head of the Government when he will run for re-election in 2025.
arb/avr
