From Mexico City
Already in the final stretch of the campaign, sectors of the ruling party assured a victory of “ten out of ten”, in reference to the open dispute for the presidency of the republic, Mexico City and the eight states at stake in these federal elections in Mexico. The forecast was fulfilled perfectly, as anticipated by the vast majority of the surveys. According to the Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP) computed by the National Electoral Institute (INE), Claudia Sheinbaumthe brand new president-elect, obtained 59 percent of the preferences, which would be equivalent to about 35 million votes.
These results break at least two historical records: Sheinbaum will be not only the first woman to preside over the United Mexican States, but also the president with the most votes in the country’s recent history. obtaining 6 points and 5 million more votes than those obtained by Andrés Manuel López Obrador himself in 2018. Furthermore, this election also stands out as a federal fact: of the 32 entities into which the country is divided (31 States and the city of Mexico), the scientist won in 31.
But the results obtained in the other positions at stake were no less surprising. At the strategic level capital city A scenario favorable to the ruling party was predicted, but much closer. However, The leftist candidate Clara Brugada, originally from the social movement, also won by a comfortable margin., obtaining 51 percent of the votes, compared to the 39 percent garnered by Santiago Taboada, of the PRI-PAN-PRD. In addition, the 4T parties would be recovering 3 of the mayoralties lost in the previous elections, controlling 11 of the 16 territorial demarcations.
In these elections, the executive authorities of 8 States were also elected. Morena and her allies will retain the 5 they already led, in some cases with overwhelming majorities, such as in Chiapas, with 79 percent of the votes, or in Tabasco, the State of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, with 80 percent . The government coalition also prevails in Yucatán, a historic bastion of the PAN, and at the time of closing this note it was still contesting, just two points behind, the State of Jalisco, governed by the Citizen Movement. With these provisional results, Morena and its allies would control at least 24 of the 32 federal entities, with a national map painted almost entirely purple. In total, national participation was 60 percent, three points lower than in the last equivalent elections.
The other great battle, the dispute over parliament, could finish rounding off an idyllic scenario for the ruling party. This will be the closest and most delayed scrutiny, although at the moment the parties of the Fourth Transformation have already guaranteed a qualified majority of two thirds in the Chamber of Deputies, exceeding the threshold of the 334 necessary seats. In the Senate, 85 of the 128 seats are required to achieve the same objective. For now, the PREP projections announce a closed end, given that Morena and her allies could obtain between 76 and 88 senatorial seats.
The qualified majority in both chambers is the key to the vault that the Government needs to be able to constitutionally protect some of the flagship policies of the six-year term, and to advance the 20 reforms proposed by the current president, some of which had already been rejected in Congress or vetoed by the courts. These reforms include the political system and the judiciary, seeking to make increases in real wages mandatoryand they intend to expand environmental protection measures, as well as recognize indigenous peoples and Afro-Mexicans, populations traditionally neglected and discriminated against by the State.
The debacle of traditional parties
The other side of the coin of these historic elections is the debacle of the conservative parties, grouped in the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition. While the PRI, the party of the “perfect dictatorship” that governed Mexico for more than 70 years, had to compete for the first time without its own candidacy, The PAN, majority partner of the alliance, imposed on the businesswoman Xóchitl Gálvez, a senator who comes neither from her own party lineage nor from the country’s economic elites. Meanwhile, the PRD, which used to be the most important party of the Mexican center-left, is completely marginalized and on the verge of extinction.
Gálvez, who tried to present herself as the renewal of the space and who even called herself an “independent candidate,” He had a rocky campaign and made numerous mistakes in the three presidential debates organized by the INE. As a result of this partisan crisis, the good overall balance of the outgoing government, the favorable performance of the main economic and social indicators, and the impossibility of constructing a seductive and credible opposition narrative, Gálvez was very far from representing a competitive option. He ultimately obtained just 28 percent of the vote, 31 points below Sheinbaum.. Despite having publicly acknowledged his defeat on Sunday night, Gálvez announced this Monday on the social network “X” that he would challenge the results, although I do not specify by what means or based on what evidence. Paradoxically, the former candidate expressed trust in the INE’s quick count system, responsible for computing the results.
Even further away in these elections, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, the citizen movement deputy, was with 10 percent.which obtained an acceptable result for its space and managed to capitalize on a favorable scenario with a fresh candidacy, a progressive discourse and a campaign aimed at youth.
Clues and challenges of the new government
Once the first official trends announced by the INE were known, Sheinbaum gave two brief speeches at the close of the day. One from the campaign bunker installed in the Hilton Hotel, more institutional and programmatic, and another with a more emotional tone, aimed at the militancy and supporters who waited for him until late at night in the traditional Zócalo of Mexico City.
López Obrador will retire from politics
In the two speeches Sheinbaum promised the strictest continuity with respect to López Obrador’s legacy, who in his “morning” conference today once again confirmed to the disbelievers his retirement from all political activity on October 1, when his successor assumes the presidency. First of all Sheinbaum referred to the so-called “wellness programs”, income transfer policies aimed at older adults, children and other vulnerable sectors, which are one of the keys that best explain the high popularity of the outgoing president and the enormous legitimacy of origin with which the scientist will enter the National Palace.
In macroeconomic terms, he promised to continue with the so-called “republican austerity” and also with “financial and fiscal discipline.” He also guaranteed the consolidation of another of the most characteristic elements of the six-year term: the megaprojects, large works of strategic infrastructure such as the Mayan Train, the Interoceanic Corridor and the Felipe Carillo Puerto Airport, among many others. There were no references to an eventual progressive tax reform, which some specialists consider essential to guarantee the sustainability and even the expansion of social programs.
On an international level, Sheinbaum promised “a foreign policy based on our constitutional principles of non-intervention, international cooperation for development, self-determination of peoples and peacebuilding.””. He assured to maintain “a friendly relationship” with the United States, but also to deepen relations with Latin America and the Caribbean. that were only strengthened in the last stretch of the six-year term. There were no specific mentions of China or any of the emerging powers in the international order, which suggests that there will be no major developments in the priority trade relations maintained between Mexico and the United States, two economies deeply intertwined since the signing of NAFTA and after the T-MEC, a free trade agreement that must be renegotiated in 2026, perhaps under a more hostile administration like that of Donald Trump.
Lastly, lThe president-elect referred to one of the thorniest issues already one of the most unavoidable debts of the change process: finally attack the structural causes of phenomena such as insecurity, violence and drug trafficking, who did not stop demonstrating, even with fatalities, on election day itself. Bearing the fateful legacy of the “war on drugs” of the PAN and PRI governments, and after several controversial attempts at militarization, the ruling party now seems to have all the legitimacy and all the instruments of the State to confront phenomena such as murders and disappearances, which still show worrying figures in some areas of the country. In this area, Sheinbaum also seemed to promise continuity, proposing to reinforce the National Guard, the great bet in terms of security, as well as strengthening intelligence policies and coordination between forces and levels of government.
