Since the beginning of 2023the world oceans have set daily heat records, worrying climate scientists, coral reef experts and hurricane forecasters. Warmer ocean temperatures act as an accelerator for hurricane season, increasing the formation and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms as they move over the ocean.
In the Atlantic, one of the key regions for hurricane development, water temperatures are “absolutely astonishing,” according to Brian McNoldy, a research associate at the Rosenstiel School of the University of Miami.
As the start of the Atlantic hurricane seasonit is observed that the waters in the Atlantiche Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico They have exceeded normal temperatures for this time of year, which was not seen before mid-August.
In 2023, ocean temperatures reached record levels, and this year they are surpassing these peaks again. “The entire tropical Atlantic is warmer than it has ever been for this time of year,” McNoldy said. This affects not only hurricane season, but also the health of coral reefs and other marine ecosystems.
Average high water temperatures this past week were 22.3°C (72.14°F), which is 1.3°C (2.34°F) higher than the 1982-2011 average, according to the Climate Reanalyzer of the University of Maine Climate Change Institute. In the primary Atlantic tropical cyclone development region, current temperatures are 1.4°C (2.52°F) warmer than the 1991-2020 average, according to Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at the Colorado State University.
The girl, a climate phenomenon that reduces wind shear over the Atlantic, could increase the risk of intense cyclonic activity this season due to unusually high ocean temperatures. Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist for WPLG Local 10 in Miami, noted in a column for Yale Climate Connections that temperature anomalies in the primary Atlantic hurricane development region are now the warmest on record before the start of the hurricane season.
These conditions also accelerate other problems, such as the mass bleaching of coral reefs and possibly increased amounts of sargassum, algae that cover and pollute beaches. Additionally, they contribute to harmful algal blooms and fish mortality. In it Gulf of Mexicothese high temperatures also increase the moisture available for storms, having influenced the increase in tornadic activity this spring.
Protection from wind shear caused by The boy in the Pacific Ocean mitigated some of the cyclonic activity last season, although seven hurricanes and twenty named storms were still recorded, the fourth most active period on record. This year, without that protection, hurricane forecasts are more ominous. According to Klotzbach, even if the region warmed at its slowest rate observed through September, it would still be the second warmest September on record for the region, trailing only 2023.
Rising ocean temperatures are largely in response to heat absorbed by the oceans due to increased human-caused emissions of fossil fuels, according to McNoldy. However, other factors such as The boyimprovements in air quality and a possible entry of humidity from the eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano in 2022, could also have played a role.
This warm water scenario will also have implications for the devastation of coral reefs. Ocean temperatures reaching up to 32.2°C (90°F) in some stations of the Florida Keys and the Everglades National Park They only exacerbate these problems, further putting these vital ecosystems at risk.
