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BRUSSELS.- The elections held over the last four days have shaken the foundations of the European Union, where The far right has defeated the parties that govern France and Germany, traditional block engines. Over the next five years it will be more difficult to make decisions in the European Parliament.
The president of France, Emmanuel Macroncalled early legislative elections after the National Meeting of Marine Le Pen humiliate his pro-European centrists at the polls. The German Chancellor’s Social Democrats Olaf Scholz They also suffered, while The far-right group Alternative for Germany was making great progress despite recent scandals.
In Italy, the prime minister’s party, Giorgia Meloni won more than 28% of the national vote to the EU assembly, which will make him a key partner when forming alliances.
Green and liberal parties throughout Europe suffered heavy defeatsalthough the traditional formations resisted. The European People’s Partycenter-right, remained as the largest bloc in the assembly of 27 countries.
These are the most important points that emerged from the elections.
Voters in France They will return to the polls in just three weeks, after Macron dissolved parliament and called early elections.
Le Pen’s nationalist, anti-immigration party was expected to win between 31% and 32% of the vote. Although a National Reunion victory in the European elections was expected, the scale of its victory was a surprise, and the formation obtained more than twice as many votes as Macron’s Renewal party, with an estimated support of 15%. By mid-July it should be clear whether a weakened Macron will have to work with a far-right government in an uneasy coexistence.
Scholz’s Social Democrats, who lead the government, recorded their worst result since World War II in a national vote, with 13.9% of the votes.
Alternative for Germany finished second with approximately 15.9%. The far-right group has been embroiled in several recent setbacks, as scandals around its two main candidates for the European electionsbut voters seemed to have given them no importance.
The result is better than the AfD’s 11% in 2019, although it fell short of the estimates in polls published this year. The German opposition center-right group Union won 30% of the votes.
He dominant group center-right, the European People’s Party, He had good results and finished in first placenot only maintaining its dominance in the European Parliament, but also adding some seats.
It was a sign that his strategy of the past two years of integrating more right-wing policies to prevent voters from abandoning his far-right rivals was working.
Over the past five years, the political group spearheaded the Green Deal, one of the most ambitious climate change policies in the world. But more recently, under pressure from farmers, who represent an important constituency, it has softened some of the policies adopted in the EU.
He has also tightened the European Union’s migration policy, partially, but not entirely, calming the concerns of voters who want to quickly end irregular immigration.
The second largest group, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats, lost some ground but remained comfortably in second place with 135 MEPs.
The main candidate of the EPP, Ursula von der Leyenhad made approaches to more right-wing parties during the campaign, but when the preliminary results were announced he asked the socialists now pro-business liberals who will work together in a pro-European alliance.
Maybe the biggest losers were the Greens. Environmentalists are likely to lose about 20 seats in the chamber, almost a third of what they gained in 2019. A series of protests across Europe by farmers and ranchers angry about the load The impact of new climate regulations helped narrow down their options.
The EU is considered a world leader in the fight against global warming. Veteran members were confident that Green parties already in governments in countries like Germany would hold out, but forecasts were that the German Greens, the second largest party in Scholz’s coalition, would fall from their peak of 20.5% of voters. votes five years ago to approximately 12%.
Liberal parties across Europe, such as Macron’s, were also expected to give up a total of 20 seats in the European assembly, which made them the other big losers.
Prominent members of the parties and analysts met today to determine what kind of groups and alliances could form in parliament over the next five years. The party presidents will have their first formal meetings tomorrow.
One thing is clear: the results will slow down decision-making and the approval of measures on issues that range from climate change to agricultural subsidies.
The president and prime ministers of the EU, for their part, will hold a summit June 17 to evaluate the results. They will also discuss whether to renew von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, the EU’s powerful executive.
The elections also shook the markets and will generate economic uncertainty: the euro collapsedwhile French bonds and stocks took a hit on Monday, following Macron’s decision to call early parliamentary elections.
The euro fell 0.5% to a low month of $1.0764 and fell to a 21-month low against sterling of 84.53 pence.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading platform XTB, said in a note that the “shock factor” Macron’s decision to call early elections would weigh on European markets on Monday, but who prevailed in the actual vote might have more weight.
“The question for traders of the euro and European stock markets is How radical will Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella be if they do well in the French parliamentary elections?” said.
“Obviously, early elections are a new source of uncertaintywhich should have some negative impact on economic and market confidence, at least in France,” said Jan von Gerich, chief market analyst at Nordea.
But he pointed out that EU election results do not always translate into national resultsdue to different voting systems as EU elections tend to attract a larger protest vote.
Agencies AP, AFP and Reuters
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