The overwhelming victory this Sunday in the European elections of the National Regroupment (RN), the ultra formation led by Marine Le Pen, and the clear defeat of Renaissance, the party with the presidential majority, have given rise to an unprecedented situation in France. The president, Emmanuel Macron, has announced the dissolution of the National Assembly after learning the results and has called legislative elections on June 30 (first round) and July 7 (second round). Although the result obtained by the RN list headed by Jordan Bardella, the rising star of the French extreme right, with 31.4% of the votes compared to Renacimiento’s 14.6%, was not a surprise, it was It is Macron’s decision to accede, even if implicitly, to the demand made by RN during the campaign: to dissolve Parliament in case his list was the most voted.
First, because the president consolidates the idea that Le Pen imposes his agenda and, above all, because it opens the possibility of cohabitation with the extreme right. Second, because it is the first time that a European scrutiny has such a direct impact on national politics: none of the previous dissolutions were linked to supranational elections, something that can create a dangerous precedent in terms of stability and that reflects the confusion of the ruling party during the campaign. By giving more prominence to his prime minister, Gabriel Attal, than to his European candidate, Valérie Hayer, Macron helped turn the European elections into a binary national duel—between him and Le Pen—and excluded de facto to the other parties.
Calling the polls again at a time when the ultra party does not stop growing is a very risky bet. It seems difficult for the relationship of forces to be reversed in just 20 days, especially considering that the new friendly face of the ultra party has managed to expand its social and territorial electoral base. With the exception of Paris and three departments close to the capital, National Regrouping has been the most voted party in the rest of the country and has gained 2.5 million voters since the last European elections.
There are those who see early elections as a bold way to regain control of the situation and clarify the will of the citizens after the electoral setback. But the decision is somewhat reckless. Furthermore, the agreement announced on Monday by the group of left-wing parties, which promotes a “new popular front”, will make Macron’s move difficult. Although this alliance could crack due to internal disagreements over support for European construction or military aid to Ukraine, which are opposed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s sovereigntist and eurosceptic left.
As soon as he came to power, Macron promised the French to eradicate the extreme right. For now, what he has achieved is to put the traditional right in front of the mirror, which on Sunday came in fifth position with 7.25% of the votes. This Tuesday the leader of The Republicans – the French equivalent of the PP – brought his party to the brink of a split by announcing his intention to make an agreement with Marine Le Pen. After Sunday’s elections, the National Regroupment ultras are closer than ever to power in France, the driving force of the European Union along with Germany. It remains to be seen if the legislative elections work for them as a retaining wall or as a highway.
