Hear
The complications that the Central Bank (BCRA) showed in recent days to continue advancing at a good pace in the necessary purchase of reserves for interventions on the market – to be able to recompose a holding that was received in furious red (US$-11.2 billion net) and generate the minimum conditions so that the Government can advance in disarming the exchange rate stocks-, Today they added another example as that entity had to pour another US$27 million into the market.
The fourth sale after the last 10 business conferences reached the end of a round in which a meager business volume was once again recorded (for a total of just US$234 million), something that shows that, of every US$10 traded on the day, US$1.15 came out of the still weak coffers of the BCRA.
The day also saw the update of the data included in the Daily Monetary Report, with which the Central Bank added confusion to a sensitive market since it appeared that on Monday the entity had started the week without purchasing reserves (with a balance of 0 ) despite the fact that it had reported at the end of that day having acquired US$59 million.
In reality, this mismatch has to do with the change in operations, from cash terms to others that are settled in 24 hours, which began to take effect that Monday as part of an alignment with international practices. which was actually replicated in other transactions (such as the settlements of mutual fund redemptions, for example). “It has to do with the migration of terms from T+0 to T+1 that started on Monday with the change of month: this implies that what was purchased that day will actually be settled the next, so the official statistics shift by one day”, they explained from the entity when asked about THE NATION.
“Everything simply arises from a methodological adaptation,” they added.
The change in deadlines does not hide, however, that The BCRA completed another very lean week in terms of reserve purchases by keeping US$99 million for this type of acquisitions. Is about a new weekly minimum in times of Milei management after the previous one of US$125 million that it had just marked in the previous week.
For this reason, its holding of net reserves has remained stable between -US$700/800 million for almost two weeks, considering the IMF criterion that requires computing the payment commitments that the BCRA assumed with some importing companies when selling them the Bopreal.
It is a fact that is beginning to worry the market given that it is registered in the middle of the high season of agricultural settlements and when the effective exporting dollar remains in the maximum zone, closing the day at $997.07, according to data from the Rosario Stock Exchange. “And it leads many of us to begin to wonder if they were not quick to cancel the US$3.1 billion received from the Bank of Basel,” said economist Leonardo Chialva, of Delphos Investment, who seems convinced that the renewed noises around the level of reserves contributed to raising the country risk rate.
The aforementioned noises also have to do with the high firm and potential payment commitments faced by the Government and the BCRA itself. They are what they took to the authorities to negotiate now against the clock a possible extension of the tranche of the swap of currencies signed with China to try to avoid having to disburse US$2.9 billion at the end of the month.
It is for the equivalent of US$5,000 million, in yuan, that the administration of Alberto Fernández spent (with an extra cost of tax) when it had already left the BCRA without reserves, a situation that it sought to conceal by allowing payments for imports with the currency of the Asian giant. . The other part of that balance would have to be paid at the end of July if there was no refinancing.
Analysts link the retraction of the offer with the level that the real exchange rate reached after being eaten away by 47% after the last strong devaluation on December 13. “According to the inflation and exchange rate data expected by the REM from May to the end of 2024 and considering an international annual inflation of 4% (and without variations in the currencies of the trading partners against the dollar) andThe Multilateral Real Exchange Rate Index (ITCRM) would end this year at levels similar to those shown in the Convertibility before the devaluation of the real“, they warned about it from Aurum Valores.
The new sale came on a day in which the BCRA allowed the wholesale dollar to rise $1.00 (after having dropped $0.50 yesterday) to close the day and the week at $899.00 for sale.
In this way, the nominal update for this sensitive variable was $3.50 “which implies a weekly devaluation of +0.39%, less than previous weeks,” observed Francisco Díaz Mayer, head of the ABC trading desk. Changes.
