The amount traded in the spot segment reached about USD 279.5 million this Tuesday, a figure that puts limits on the purchasing capacity of the Central Bank without affecting the dynamics of the private sector’s demand for foreign currency. This Tuesday, The entity disposed of USD 31 millionto chain the third round followed with a negative balance due to its intervention in the wholesale market.
During June the BCRA purchasing balance is reduced to about USD 59 million, in the seventh consecutive month with a positive balance due to its exchange participation. The Central Bank accumulates net purchases in the exchange market for USD 17,345 million since December 11 of last year, when the government of Javier Milei.
On the other hand, the Bookings Gross international revenues gave up about USD 26 million this Tuesday, USD 29,210 million. With the management of La Libertad Avanza, said stock improved by USD 8,001 million or 37.7%, from USD 21,209 million on December 7, 2023.
“Although sales are brief, the trend is a first alarm signal thinking about what may come in the third quarter, in which the BCRA usually deaccumulates reserves as the massive agricultural supply disappears and we find ourselves in the period of high seasonality. of the imported quantities. The relatively positive thing compared to previous years is that the liquidation of the coarse harvest is flowing, but not massively. The five-day moving average of the liquidation of cereals and oilseeds is at USD 101 million, being well below the peaks of the current administration,” indicated the experts from Personal Portfolio Investments.
“The delay in the liquidation of the farm is not due to a lack of product, since threshing is practically completed in the core area. Rather, producers would be postponing the sale of their stocks to exporters due to a low cost of leverage, a greater exchange rate gap and the expectation of an increase in international commodity prices. commodities. Therefore, farm dollars could appear with the right incentives – perhaps a higher spread rate-crawling that makes leverage more expensive and a smaller gap or even an eventual exit from the stocks-, mitigating the typical deaccumulation of reserves in the third quarter,” they noted from Portfolio Personal.
“The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic continues to show weaknesses, reserves have not reached the necessary height to clear up doubts in the market. We continue with a large monetary liability in pesos and dollars, a growing debt in terms of imports, and few export settlements to swell the reserves. In this context, we are weak,” considered the analyst and business advisor. Salvador Di Stefano.
“An issue that confuses the business community is what monetary and exchange rate policy the Central Bank will adopt in the future. In principle, it would not have the dollars necessary to dollarize the economy, as was the case in Panama or Ecuador. A currency competition scheme also looks complex, firstly, because there are not enough dollars to lift the stocks, secondly, because the issuance of pesos must be prohibited and everything is in the hands of endogenous dollarization – that the dollars come out of the mattress-”, added Di Stefano.
Gustavo Beran economist at Estudio Ber, observed that “with a pace of BCRA purchases that has not yet been lifted as a result of the liquidations, operators continue to closely monitor their dynamics given that it is important to advance with greater intensity at this stage in the accumulation of reserves, as a prelude to the lower supply of foreign currency in the second half.”
“Given the expectations aroused by the political scenario, financial dollars remain more sustained near $1,300, with a ‘gap’ already close to 45% whose widening should be avoided – through political and economic signals that convey tranquility – in order to not affect the positive investment expectation that has been working in our favor from the beginning,” said Gustavo Ber.
