In full escalation of the price of the blue dollar In recent weeks, in a context in which monthly inflation fell sharply, an international report has just been published, based on forecasts of 40 economists national and foreign sources of banks and consultants, who estimate What is the price that the official exchange rate will have at the end of the year.
In principle, the analysts who participated in the June FocusEconomics They highlight that they continue with downward trend estimates for the end of the year official dollar and inflationwith respect to the figures anticipated in the previous survey.
In figures, The consensus of experts maintains that the official wholesale exchange rate will be precisely at $1,331 at the end of next December, a value similar to what it has already reached in the free exchange market. Likewise, this data means a decline of 65 pesos compared to the projections made last month for the end of the year.
Likewise, the panorama now looks calmer compared to the beginning of the year, after the strong devaluation that occurred last December and the escalation of inflation that exceeded 25% monthly. Although today the economic contraction is what worries the most.
Likewise, analysts emphasize that the Government had a budget surplus of more than $1 trillion (US$1.1 billion) in the first quarter, compared to a deficit of $3.6 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. Although doubts arise in the coming months.
“The data for the first quarter are pessimistic: economic activity fell month by month throughout the quarter. As for the second quarter, the economic slowdown should be easing and the available indicators are moderately optimistic”they detail from FocusEconomics.
For economists, the official dollar price forecasts for December are lower than those expected in previous months.
Inflation and activity, compared to the price of the dollar
With our sights set on what may happen in the economy the rest of the year and the impact of this on the dollar, Analysts also make their forecasts on the activity and inflation.
“The economy will contract this year due to the macroeconomic adjustment plan of President Milei that involves fiscal adjustment, currency devaluation and elimination of price controls. However, a notable rebound in agricultural production should provide some support,” the report said.
At the same time, it emphasizes that it is a factor “key to watch” the fate of the Government’s reform package in Congress.
In short, the FocusEconomics panelists predict that the GDP will contract 3.3% in 2024, 0.1 percentage point less than a month ago.
On the side of the inflationthe downward trend that it has had in recent months is rescued, where it is rescued that in May reached an increase of around 5%
“This year inflation will average the highest in Latin America due to the elimination of price controls and the weakening of official and parallel exchange rates. A weaker than expected currency is an upside risk”summarize the analysts.
Specifically, it is expected that the Consumer prices will increase by 247.4% on average in 2024, which represents a reduction of 9.5 percentage points compared to the survey a month ago.
The official wholesale dollar price agreed upon by economists is $1,331 for the end of December.
Price of the dollar projected for the end of the year
Regarding the price of estimated official dollar for the end of the yearseveral economists maintain that the Government will try to maintain the slow devaluation (crawling peg) of 2% monthly, although they warn that the exchange rate delay is evident and that there could be a jump before the end of 2024.
This way, The value agreed upon by experts for the official wholesale dollar for the end of December is $1,331.1, a decrease of about 65 pesos compared to the forecasts made in last May’s report ($1,396) for the same date.. And it confirms the downward trend of the estimates.
If said quote is reached, the exchange rate will advance 64.6% throughout the year, a level much lower than expected inflation. And from now until the end of December, projections indicate that it should rise 47.5%.
“Argentina has a moving peg, and the Central Bank allows the peso to depreciate at a controlled rate in the official market (…) Official and parallel exchange rates should weaken by the end of 2024″highlighted by FocusEconomics.
The market consensus price for the end of the year of $1,331 exceeds the estimates of the Survey of Market Expectations (REM)published at the beginning of the month by the Central Bank and in which 37 experts were surveyed, where forecasts $1,174.7 for December, about 125 pesos less compared to the report published in May.
Since the operation, in the Matba-Rofex futures and options market was negotiated at the wholesale exchange rate for next December $1,180, a value similar to REM but about 150 pesos lower than FocusEconomics.
The price of the official wholesale dollar, for economists, would be maintained until the end of the year with the devaluation planned by the Government of 2% monthly.
Dollar price, economist by economist
As for the specific projections of each of the economists surveyed According to the international report, a great dispersion continues to be observed since the expected value ranges between $945 and $2,100.
The The highest price projections for the official wholesale dollar for the end of the year are led by S&P Global Ratings, with $2,100, followed by the national consulting firms LCG ($1,812), Fitch Ratings ($1,613) and Econviews, with 1,609 pesos..
“We are seeing that hTowards the end of the year the exchange market is going to be unified or the Government is going to apply a devaluationbecause a 2% monthly depreciation in a context of higher inflation erodes external competitiveness,” he told iProfesional. Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director of Macroeconomic analysis at Equilibra, which expects $1,500 by the end of next December.
For its part, Rosario Vidaurretaeconomist at Analytica, a consulting firm that forecasts $1,268 by the end of the year, add to this media: “Starting in July the monthly crawling peg can be increased beyond 2% due to the decline in grain exports, something that typically occurs in the second half.”
Additionally, and on the foreign exchange demand side, this analyst adds that if the exchange rate appreciation deepens, which is currently at September or October 2023 levels, “may jeopardize the goal of reserve accumulation that the Government has, even more so considering the upcoming debt maturities.
For Pablo Repettohead of Research at Aurum, with projection of $1,100 for Decembertells iProfesional that That price level is with an official “conservative” devaluation, where neither the stocks nor the blend dollar is resolved, with the Central Bank striving to accumulate reserves but achieving few improvements.
For Fernando Baeran economist at Quantum, who estimates $1,067 by the end of 2024, also states that this wholesale dollar is “consistent with inflation that continues to decline and converges to levels of the official exchange rate associated with a 2% monthly devaluation”.
Finally, Camilo Tiscorniaeconomist and director of C&T Asesores, with a forecast of $1,027 by the end of the yearagrees that this figure corresponds to the assumption of a scenario that the “Government manages to control the exchange rate and can maintain the monthly devaluation pattern of 2%which goes hand in hand with inflation that will continue to decline in the second semester, although at a slower speed than what has been achieved until now.”
