After more than a month of falls and rises in Cuba’s informal market, the value of the US dollar has remained at 350 pesos (CUP) in recent days.
This is how it was quoted this weekend, according to the rate of the independent media The touch —used as a reference by currency sellers and buyers on the island—and this is how it also dawned this Monday, in what could be a sign of stabilization.
However, judging by its recent erratic and incomprehensible behavior for many, betting on this stabilization is, to say the least, risky.
This risk also seems to be supported by the upward trend in proposals for the purchase and sale of the North American currency in the last 24 hours reported by The touch to prepare your rate.
Both showed an increase of 5 CUP this morning, although their average still served to maintain the average value at 350 CUP.
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The euro and the MLC
The slowdown in recent days is also extensive for the euro, anchored at 360 CUP, and the MLC, fixed at 300 CUP and, apparently, more stable according to the criteria of sellers and buyers.
However, taking into account the evolution of the informal market in the last month, it is quite likely that if the dollar begins to rise again – or if, on the contrary, it falls again – the remaining currencies will continue their trend and the apparent stability that they show now.
On the other hand, and with the same logic, it seems certain that if the US currency continues with its current “tranquility”, the euro and the MLC will imitate it, as has been happening until now.
In any case, it is adventurous to predict with certainty what will happen to currencies in Cuba.
Since mid-May, their value in the informal market has first experienced a surprising drop—which took them below 300 CUP—, then a meteoric rise and, when it seemed that they would break their historical records, a new decline, although less pronounced. .
The reasons for this erratic situation remain unclear, even though some experts speak of a self-correction of the market and many people use conspiracy theories, with different protagonists, depending on whether currencies rise or fall.
What is irrefutable is that this behavior of currencies occurs without there being an improvement in Cuba’s economic situation and there is no productive support—and a consequent increase in supply—that could help sustain the downward trend. .
In this scenario, renowned economists and also ordinary Cubans have asked the Government to take measures to control the exchange market and to stop, in this way, the volatility of the value of the dollar and the unstoppable inflation that the country suffers.
