“Inflation has taken a backseat. People are no longer so concerned”Javier Milei told the four governors with whom he met on Thursday at the Casa Rosada to begin to give shape to the delayed May Pact, which was now agreed for July 9 in Tucumán. The President believes that the slowdown in prices is his main management achievement and assures that, after a slight rebound that will occur in June due to the increase in rates, in the coming months the downward trend will deepen to be reduced by half next year. He attributes this decline to why economists question the exchange rate and talk about inconsistencies in the economic program: “It’s pure envy”, curses them. He places Miguel Angel Broda and Carlos Melconian at the top of that group of skeptics, but, little by little, he is also incorporating Domingo Cavallo, whom he prefers not to criticize, perhaps to avoid falling into his own trap: until very recently he He was publicly described as the best Minister of Economy in history.
He asked the provincial leaders not to pay attention to the bad omens, neither from economists nor from other protagonists of the Red circle, like certain businessmen and journalists, for whom he professes the same aversion. He told them that, once the Base Law passes the last filter of the Chamber of Deputies, the country will begin a path towards lower taxes, first, and towards growth, later.
Faith and hope, as the last libertarian would say, are not lacking, despite the fact that the markets are experiencing days of confusion since in some sectors – construction, automotive and commerce – activity plummets and translates into losses of profits. Job positions.
At the meeting at Balcarce 50, Osvaldo Jaldo from Tucumán, Gustavo Sáenz from Salta, Raúl Jalil from Catamarca and Carlos Sadir from Jujuy pledged to continue supporting the Government. A kind of reconversion prevails among them, especially the first three, who are Peronists and opted for Sergio Massa. At least two of them congratulated Milei that day for the speech he had just given in Rosario for Flag Day, in which he asked that “partisan blinders” be put aside. Mileism considers them allies. Kirchnerism is scared.
Jaldo became sweet to thank Milei that the May Pact – to which everyone from former presidents to members of the Supreme Court intend to join – is being held in his province. “I know you like sweets,” he said, and gave her ten bags of candied nuts. The meeting lasted barely half an hour, but there was an atmosphere of celebration.
“Did you know that I also sing, Javier?”Sáenz surprised. The man from Salta turned on his cell phone and showed a TikTok video in which he sings with Los Palmeras and Chaqueño Palavecino during the 100th anniversary of the founding of Tartagal. “Ah, but this one is worse than me,” said the head of state in front of the other three governors, who couldn’t stop laughing. Milei found the perfect excuse to close the meeting in the shoes of Leonardo Favio, as she once did on Guido Kaczka’s program. He began to sing a cappella some verses of “She already forgot me.” A delight.
The President extended the enthusiasm as he left. He walked up to the bars that separate the Casa Rosada from Rivadavia Avenue and greeted people, something he usually does, even when there are no journalists in sight: he usually gets out of the car when they recognize him and engages in small dialogues with strangers. There, they say in his team, lies his strength, in maintaining popular support, at least that of those who made the electoral failure possible, who so far have not suffered any bills due to the brutal adjustment of the economy. The fault lies with Cristina or Alberto Fernández, even Mauricio Macri if necessary. Never from the libertarian.
Milei’s perception coincides with a certain change in expectations recorded by some public opinion analysts. As inflation eases, new demands arise, which could alter the agenda and behavior of the Executive, which follows these measurements, at least its own, as if they were a bible
Price increases are no longer the main complaint of Argentines, as was the case in December. Concern begins to turn towards unemployment and insecurity. The first item is recurrent: when people are asked what their main fear is, many answer without hesitation: “Being out of work.”
However, the voters of La Libertad Avanza confirm that their leader “is doing what needs to be done.” In some key districts, such as Córdoba – which could become a bastion of milleism, as it once was for the PRO -, support remains very high. That explains why Governor Martín Llaryora is no longer so critical of Milei; He even rushed to confirm yesterday that he will be present in Tucumán to sign the May Pact.
Milei’s depth of fit, popular backrest and style They continue to be a matter of study, if not of stupor, for traditional politics. A Peronist leader who held executive positions and a prominent role in Congress says: “I no longer make predictions, I have already lost several battles. I still see a crazy person in power, who takes selfies and has no political support. If I were him I would be heartbroken facing so many problems, but he acts as if nothing had happened and people believe him and feel that the future can be better.”
Santiago Caputo, Milei’s guru, knows that there is no possibility of sustaining support in the medium term if the light does not begin to see. He frequently talks about it with his boss and with Karina, who for him are almost the same person. Milei, for now, He no longer says that he is happy with life with the Cabinet. He assumes that some pieces did not fit into his initial scheme (in the last hours Nicolás Posse linked her up, as if he himself had not given her brilliant power before and after taking office) and that a touch-up is needed. He is going to promote it when he returns from his European tour, which will almost coincide with the last step of the Bases Law for Deputies.
Milei sends messages, increasingly racy and challenging to his own troops. In an interview with Jonatan Viale on TN he said that no one will touch Luis Caputo’s “ass.” He very often supports Sandra Pettovello, the Minister of Human Capital who threatened to leave several times, and, behind closed doors, asked that they stop attacking her. In her talks alone with Milei, the minister has complained about operations that come from the Government itself and that seek to destabilize her in the face of an immense and, for many, unmanageable ministry.
Milei threatens to expel those who promote those operations or dedicate time to fights. She also had to deny that Diana Mondino is leaving the Foreign Ministry. Too much effort to maintain the obvious – that he is the boss, as she said in the interview – less than seven months after inaugurating his administration.
While the internal conflicts do not cease, Milei will appoint as minister – of modernization or deregulation – Federico Sturzenegger, a tough among the tough, who is already talking to “Toto” Caputo (“they will have to live together,” Milei said), but who is unlikely to agree. remain docile in the exercise of your task.
Caputo is preparing the reduction of the Country tax for after the final sanction of the Bases Law. There are those who say it will be immediate. It will take the tax from the current 17.5% to 7.5%, which is the percentage that was set when Alberto Fernández left. Caputo told his team that he will offset that money with Profits, Personal Assets and the tax holiday. But his underlying bet is different.
The economist aims to remove the exchange rate little by little and manages a date that he does not share with anyone for its definitive release: the end of the year. “It would be a nice Christmas gift for everyone”confides a member of the economic cabinet.
Before that, Argentina will have to enter into a new agreement with the IMF. These negotiations have not yet formally begun and could take some time. between four and six months. Milei and Caputo want a loan of between 10 billion and 15 billion dollars so that the release of the stocks does not become a risk for the price of the official dollar.
The organization, of course, will set conditions. He wants a higher dollar, that the money from the loan is not used to intervene in the market, that the blend dollar disappear, that the fiscal adjustment be maintained, that there be consensus between the ruling party and the opposition for drastic reforms and that the sectors be protected more vulnerable.
Might as well ask, while we’re at it, a pass of magic.
