China has raised again his war theater about Taiwan because he disliked his new president’s speech. For two days it will unfold boats and planes around the island to express his tantrum and try to convince Taipei to control his alleged secessionist drive. International condemnations and media announcements of imminent invasions are foreseeable, but the maneuvers leave only one certainty: the lack of Chinese strategy towards an island that is increasingly distant from the continent.
The chinese troops have started some exercises that are designed as a “strong punishment for separatist acts” and a warning against “interference and provocation by external forces,” according to the Command of the Eastern Theater of Operations of the National Liberation Army. The maneuvers have the Navy, the air force and missiles in unclear proportions. Its activity will extend through the Strait of Formosaa thread of just 130 kilometers that To stop Taiwan Chinaand northern, southern and western areas.
They represent a test of the integral lock of the island that prevents external aid. “Taiwan depends on imports, especially in its energy sector. So if it is closed, economic collapse will be inevitable,” said a chinese military analyst on state television. The pressure on the southern Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s third city and its main port, would impede supplies, while interventions on the eastern coast would make it difficult for US troops to arrive. That is the theory about a war that very few Taiwanese believe possible, accustomed for decades to the roar of threats and more disturbed by the tangible economic sanctions of Beijing than for its missiles.
“Protect sovereignty”
Taipei has deployed land, sea and air forces to “protect freedom, democracy and sovereignty”, according to its Ministry of Defense. The biggest risk is that the high density of planes and ships in the area triggers an accident that everyone tries to avoid. These military maneuvers were an exceptional Chinese response until the then Chairwoman that of United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visited the island two years ago. Beijing has since repeated them, usually when Taiwanese leaders received audiences from international politicians. The trigger this time was Lai Ching-tee’s inauguration speech which China has interpreted as a hymn to independence.
In its guidelines it did not distance itself from those of its predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen: asked the end of chinese intimidation and emphasized the Taiwanese sovereignty. But the allusions to the 1992 consensus with which Tsai sweetened the message were missing: the agreement on the existence of a single China that allows for the opposing interpretations of Beijing and Taipei about which China that is. It was enough for Beijing to see its fears confirmed that it was dealing with a unredeemed independentist.
Inflammatory editorials
It didn’t seem China upset the day after. The national press ignored the inauguration and only six Chinese ships and planes crossed the unofficial border, according to the Taiwanese daily count. The anger emerged on the second day through inflamed editorials in all official media. And the third, Beijing deployed the Army.
The January elections highlighted the strategy failure of China. He had presented them as an alternative between “war and peace & rdquor; and their most hated candidate won, a corollary of Taiwanese autism to his instructions. The party closest to Beijing and previously hegemonic, the Kuomintangcould not take advantage of the eight years of erosion in power of the Democratic Progressive Party nor the economic disaster.
For decades it has alternated Beijing the Economic sanctions, if some governed, with the perks, if others did, hoping that the island would understand that under their umbrella one lives better. Evolution is the opposite of what was dreamed of and only a determined commitment to seduction could change the drift in the long term. The military games they certify again that China cannot find a way out of the Taiwanese labyrinth.
