Uncertainty, repercussions and opportunities after verdict against Trump

By Daniel Rivera Vargas

The guilty verdict issued last week against former President Donald Trump opens the door to uncertainty, implies new possibilities for both Democrats and Republicans and carries very serious repercussions that go beyond an election cycle, according to some people interviewed by Microjuris.

Donald Trump is found guilty: Could he receive executive clemency?

Constitutional law professor Carlos Ramos González reiterated that there is no doubt that Trump’s conviction last week, on 34 charges in the state of New York for falsification of documents, is not an impediment for him to aspire to the presidency for the third time. in eight years.

The federal constitution only requires that the candidate be born in the United States, have been a resident for 14 years, and be at least 35 years old.

“That constitution was not necessarily designed for a situation like this,” commented Ramos González.

He added that there is also no way for states to prevent Trump from running in the next election. This is due to the recent decision of the United States Supreme Court, which determined that the clause prohibiting someone from seeking office for committing insurrection requires congressional action.

With last week’s verdict, Trump becomes the first former president to be found guilty of serious crimes. However, he would not be the first presidential candidate to run with a conviction on his record. In 1917, the socialist EV Debs aspired to the presidency from prison and obtained a million votes.

“Of course, it was an almost symbolic vote (you don’t win the presidency with a million votes), but on this occasion there is a real possibility that a convict will win the presidency,” he added.

For the professor at the Faculty of Law of the Inter-American University of Puerto Rico, Trump’s conviction was not a surprise because the people who were watching the process could see how the parade of evidence was enough to know that the former president could not be found innocent. unanimously, so the jury’s real options were to declare him guilty or a jury deadlocked due to lack of unanimity.

There is also no social environment for a constitutional amendment to prevent the unusual situation of the country’s leadership falling into the hands of a man awaiting a possible prison sentence following a jury verdict.

«You have half the population that apparently doesn’t care. We are seeing the failure of participatory democracy, the decline of North American society, and growing economic inequality between rich and poor. Racial discrimination against Hispanics and immigrants is very strong. There are voters who want to live in a society that does not exist, in complete misinformation. In the United States we suffer from battered person syndrome. Frantz Fanon said that in the end the oppressed person ends up becoming the oppressor. There is a half of the electorate that projects its misfortune by accepting this individual, this criminal,” said Ramos González about Trump.

The situation is getting to the point that Trump is using the verdict to his advantage. “He wants to be put in prison, because he knows that even in prison he can win,” he mentioned.

«This has, of course, very serious implications. The possibility of him and his movement winning, even though some people thought the conviction would cause him to lose votes among independents, remains high because his base is very powerful and aligned.

«But the implication that it has for the future of the North American nation, the message that is sent, is obviously terrifying for the United States, and for the extreme right of the world that has allied itself with that. “If that means that the North American nation is going to end, that something good must emerge from those ashes for the United States and the world, we will see,” he said.

“The second thing I want to highlight is the importance it has for Puerto Rico,” the professor mentioned. “If Trump wins the presidency, we already know what he thinks about statehood, he does not believe in statehood for Puerto Rico, he wanted to sell us to Greenland, which says we are a dirty country, all the insults he has said,” he lamented.

He added that there are very influential people in Puerto Rico, from powerful families, who are followers of Trump, “but they do not dare to say it openly.”

He indicated that it would be important for the resident commissioner and candidate for governor in 2024 for the New Progressive Party (PNP), Jenniffer González, to express herself about Trump’s verdict and assured that many people behind her campaign are believers in the magnate and American politician.

Ramos expressed that although Trump has three other criminal trials, two federal and one state, it is unlikely that any of those cases will be heard before the election.

The professor recalled that Trump has anticipated that, if he wins the presidency, he will order the federal Department of Justice to dismiss federal cases.

Meanwhile, the consultant in Washington DC, Federico de Jesús, recalled that this is the third adverse judicial ruling against Trump, only that the other two cases are civil in nature.

But, the former Hispanic spokesperson for Democrat Barack Obama, recognized that the result of this federal case, at least in the first days after the verdict was issued, is a strengthening of the candidate’s opportunities to raise money.

“He has gotten the most out of it,” said de Jesús.

For the Democratic Party it is an opportunity, not only because of the stain of candidate Trump but also against the Republican Party, because it makes them the first party to have a convicted candidate.

“The Republican Party boasts of being a party of law and order, of being pro-police, but now they are the ones defending a candidate who has been convicted, and a candidate who has said he will pardon and that they are political prisoners.” those who participated in the January 6 insurrection, although police officers died there,” said de Jesús.

He also said the effect on the conservative sector of this verdict, in a case associated with Trump’s infidelity with an actress from the pornographic world at a time when he was married and his wife was pregnant.

«It is one of those contradictions of the conservative movement. With Trump, the veil of hypocrisy of the American religious right has been lifted. It was already known since 2016 that Trump was a sexual harasser. Donald Trump’s personal behavior leaves much to be desired. What the American right-wing movement has shown is that what matters to them is abortion, condemning LGBTTIQ rights… that is the pact they made with the devil by supporting Trump,” he denounced.

The effect of the last verdict on the elections is still uncertain, de Jesús said. He explained that in the midst of the Republican primary process, there were studies that indicated that 15% of the electorate would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty in any of his trials.

For that, we will have to see what happens in the coming months, and how the Democrats decide to use this damning verdict in the campaign.