The PP would win the European elections this Sunday with an advantage of 2.2 points over the PSOE, according to the Sigma Dos para la Forta (TVE and TV3) survey, in a context of low electoral participation and after a very tense campaign that It has been proposed by the two main parties as a plebiscite on the Government of Pedro Sánchez and in which the problems and challenges of Europe have barely been discussed.
The survey also points to a rise in the right and the extreme right in Spain, the entry of the group of voters of the ultra agitator alvise Pérez, the disappearance of Ciudadanos and a huge collapse of the independence movement in Catalonia compared to 2019.
The survey gives the PP list, led in these elections by Dolors Montserrat, a vote estimate of 32.4% and gives it between 21 and 23 seats in the European Parliament, which represents enormous growth compared to the 2019 elections. , when it obtained only 13. It is true that Ciudadanos, which in 2019, was at its best and obtained seven, would now disappear from the European Parliament and lose its last place where it had representation.
In second position would be, according to this demographic analysis, the PSOE, with the third vice president of the Government, Teresa Ribera, at the helm, with a vote estimate of 30.2% and a projection of seats of between 20 and 22. The socialists, who in 2019 ran with Josep Borrell at the head of the list, then obtained almost 33% of the votes to win 21 seats, which earned them victory a month after Pedro Sánchez defeated Pablo Casado in the general elections.
On the other hand, the Sociometrica survey for The Spanish It gives a much clearer advantage to the PP, giving it a range of between 23 and 25 seats while reducing the PSOE’s harvest to between 19 and 20 deputies.
Continuing with the Sigma Dos poll, Vox, led by Jorge Buxadé, would obtain just over 10.4% of the votes, which would allow it to obtain between six and seven deputies and position itself as the third Spanish political force in the European Parliament. according to both surveys. In 2019 he obtained four.
Sumar would prevail over Podemos
The Sumar formation, of the second vice president Yolanda Díaz, would make its debut in the European elections in a modest way but at the very least it would surpass Podemos, of the former Minister of Equality Irene Montero. Thus, Sumar’s candidate, Estrella Galán, would obtain 6.3% of the votes and obtain between 3 and 4 deputies. One more than Podemos that would achieve the support of 4.4% of the electorate. As a whole, this space would obtain support very similar to that of 2019 and could maintain the six deputies it obtained then.
The Ahora Repúblicas coalition, which includes ERC, EH Bildu and BNG, among others, would be in sixth position with 4.3% of the votes, which could give it between 2 and 3 MEPs.
The new group of voters, Se Acaó la Fiesta, of ultra agitator Luis ‘Alvise’ Pérez, would enter the European Parliament, with the support of 3.9% of the electorate and would obtain between two and three seats.
Junts, this time with Toni Comín at the head of the list, would lose two of the three MEPs it achieved in 2019 by keeping 2.1% of the support, when then, Carles Puigdemont, obtained 4.6% of the votes clearly surpassing Esquerra in Catalonia.
Finally, the CEUS coalition in which PNV and Canarian Coalition are integrated would manage to maintain its deputies with 1.6% of the votes.
The PSC explodes in Catalonia and the independence movement sinks
The Sigma Dos survey for Forta also offers a Catalan reading on the eve of a key day such as the constitution of the Parliament that can mark the future of the legislature. In Catalonia, the PSC would prevail with a great advantage in vote estimates of around 18 points over its pursuers (ERC, PP and Junts), after a spectacular collapse of the independence vote.
The Socialists would improve their position by 9 points and obtain 31.2% of the votes, while Esquerra would lose eight to remain at 13.2% and Junts would lose 16 points, to obtain 12.5% of the votes. The PP, for its part, would score an increase of 7.5 points compared to 2019 to fight for second position.
It is worth remembering that the previous European elections were held in May 2019, with Carles Puidemont and Oriol Junqueras at the head of Junts and ERC, respectively, and in the middle of the trial of the processes which took place in the Supreme Court five months after the sentencing, at a time of maximum pro-independence mobilization.
