The European Union faces existential challenges that will require an enormous effort in the coming years to adapt the common project to the turbulent contemporary panorama. The political balances that, according to the first projections, emerge from the European elections complicate an already arduous task. If the final results confirm the projections scenario, the new legislature will be marked by two problematic factors for European construction: an advance by the heterogeneous galaxy of nationalist far-right forces; and the brutal blows suffered by the leaders in power in Berlin and Paris, the key driving forces. The body of the EU sees its center of gravity shift towards a Eurosceptic right and its two largest national legs falter.
Both are serious problems. None, however, is insurmountable.
In a pan-European key, what the ultra vote means cannot be underestimated. There are differences, and very large ones, between the parties that go under that label, but it is obvious that to a large extent it is a vote of rejection or skepticism towards the direction of European integration, of displeasure with the system. It is serious, and it will be hard to reverse that dynamic. The solution is not to accept the theses of their leaders, but to reduce reasons for their voters’ discomfort.
In any case, despite the ultra boom, according to projections, the traditional European coalition – popular, social democrats and liberals – retains a majority in the European Parliament. The problem is that it appears to be too tight in view of the history of the groups, which do not usually vote compactly. Most of the time these deviations do not correspond to major dilemmas of principle, but rather to small partisan calculations. In any case, the Green group continues to exist as a reinforcement that broadens the European base.
What is needed is for the pro-European formations to abandon petty partisan calculations and with nobility of spirit converge, with mutual concessions, in the name of the greater interest of common construction. This calls on the popular not to seek alliances or flirt with the ultras. And, to the others, to reciprocate by recognizing their electoral primacy, taking steps back that do not cross red lines. There is room. Unlike so many poisoned national scenarios, polarized to the core, in Europe this is possible. The bridges are not broken. You just need to use them with a high level of vision.
Regarding the weakening of the two great centers of national power, the blow is hard. The prospect of having two badly injured leaders in Germany and France is emerging. What was already a fluid relationship has signs of becoming even more complex due to the political desperation of both parties. The call for early legislative elections adds uncertainty. But again, the problem is not insurmountable. Le Pen is not in the Elysée, nor is Alternative for Germany in the chancellery. With the right will, there is room to reach agreements.
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The diagnosis is clear: the EU is not well prepared for today’s world. It has a security and competitiveness deficit. She is too dependent, fragile, slow to react. Some believe that the answer is the Europe of nations, slowing or even reversing integration. Others believe that the solution is more unity. These should stop partisanship, chicken-flying calculations and seek compromises with those who share the idea that is the touchstone. They are the majority.
On the entrance door of the European Parliament in this legislature they should engrave an inscription: “leave all partisanship, Europeanists who enter.” Otherwise, perhaps, in the not too distant future the one that was at the door of Dante’s baratro would appear: “abandon all hope.”
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