The question that haunts the headquarters of the chancelleries of half the world is this moment could be considered «the million dollar question»: Who will be the next president of the United States?
Although polls give Trump an advantage, the truth is that there is not even unanimity in the polls on the matter. There are many who put Biden ahead.
Furthermore, there are enough disruptive elements that could cause a reversal at any moment: the recent judicial sentence to donald trump to try to buy the silence of a former lover, the trial against Joe Biden’s son (Hunter Biden) for lying on his gun license, the presence of an independent candidate as powerful as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., or political disenchantment of American society that could translate into an increase in abstention.
The key states
To have somewhat clearer ideas, the first thing you have to be clear about is how the system works. electoral system American, where there is no direct election of the candidate.
To those who choose american votersIn reality, it is a series of delegates from each State who then elect the president.
In total, voters will elect 538 delegates. The candidate who reaches the minimum of 270 delegates will be the one who wins.
The number of delegates per state is asymmetric and varies depending on the population, which makes some states key due to their population, which causes them to contribute a greater number of delegates.
States like California, Texas, Florida, New York or Pennsylvania They provide a large number of delegates. However, just because they are key states for the election of the president does not mean that they are decisive, and there is an explanation that justifies this paradox.
The explanation is that, although they are States that contribute many delegates, they also tend to show a still electoral photo election after election. That is to say, California, for example, is traditionally Democratic and it is very rare for a majority of Republican delegates to emerge. Democrats count on it and Republicans do the same.
On the contrary, Texas It is a traditional Republican fiefdom, and it is very rare for it to lean towards the Democratic vote, so that variable already enters into the electoral calculations of both parties.
Instead, the decisive states They are those who, even having a smaller number of voters, do not have that fixed photo of the vote and, therefore, from one election to another they can opt for Democrats or Republicans without distinction.
In the 2020 elections, where the Democrats won and Joe Biden took over the White House, the decisive states were Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Who has the best chance of victory?
If what we want is to have some clue as to which candidate has the best chance of winning, we must start by looking at the popularity ratingsand the truth is that neither of the two candidates comes out well.
Both Biden and trump They suspend, although it is also true that Biden suspends more than Trump.
According to data updated as of June 2024 by YouGovBiden fails in popularity with 57.9% unfavorable opinions and 40% favorable opinions.
Biden’s popularity index collected by YouGovYouGov
On the contrary, 54.8% of those surveyed have an unfavorable opinion of donald trump compared to 43.3% who have a favorable opinion.
Trump’s popularity index collected by YouGovYouGov
In terms of voting intention, a recent Poly Market survey gives Trump victory with 56% of the votes compared to 36% of Joe Biden.
Another recent survey, by Emerson Polling, also gives the victory for trump with 46% compared to Biden’s 45%.
In such decisive states, who has the advantage? In Georgia Quinnipiac Poll puts Trump ahead with 49% of voting intention compared to 44% for Biden.
In Michigan There is currently a technical tie with 48% of the voting intention for both, according to MIRSnews.
In PennsylvaniaAccording to MainStUSApolls, Trump is in the lead with 47% of voting intentions compared to 45% for Biden.
In SnowfallPolymarket gives victory to Trump with 62% of the votes, well ahead of Biden, who is left behind with 38%.
In Arizona Trump’s advantage, with 58% of the voting intention, is also overwhelming, with Biden falling behind with 39% of the voting intention.
In these last two states, the great difference between one and the other, that large advantage, is undoubtedly due to the immigration issue. Both states are in the border with Mexicoan issue that has focused much of the legislature and that has been an important element of wear and tear for Biden.
