Military armored vehicles hit against the doors of the government palace of Bolivia on Wednesday as President Luis Arce warned that his country was facing an attempted coup.
Somehow, the military uprising was the result of the tension in which the South American country has been immersed for months, with demonstrations by street vendors and transporters against the fuel shortage and the economic crisis and a deep internal division in the ruling Movement towards Socialism (MAS) party.
On the other hand, the military attempt to seize the seat of government appeared to lack significant support, and even Arce’s rivals quickly closed ranks to defend democracy and repudiate the uprising.
What triggered the military uprising?
The uprising was allegedly led by the army commander, General Juan José Zúñiga, who told journalists gathered in the square in front of the government palace that “there is going to be a new cabinet of ministers… our country cannot continue like this any longer.” , our State”, but added that he recognized Arce as commander in chief of the Armed Forces “for now.”
Zúñiga did not explicitly say whether he was the leader of the uprising, but already in the palace he said that the army was trying to “restore democracy and free our political prisoners.”
Arce ordered him to withdraw his soldiers, claiming that he would not allow insubordination and subsequently dismissed Zúñiga from his position and appointed a new military leadership.
What is behind the recent tensions in Bolivia?
Bolivians suffer from slow economic growth, growing inflation and a shortage of dollars – which are used to purchase real estate and other assets and as a savings currency – a radical change with respect to the previous decade in which the country experienced what some called an “economic miracle.”
The country’s economy grew more than 4% almost every year during the 2010s until falling into the abyss with the coronavirus pandemic. But problems began in 2014, when commodity prices plummeted and the government dipped into its foreign reserves to sustain spending. He then dipped into his gold reserves and even sold dollar bonds locally.
Arce had been Minister of Economy during almost the entire decade of strong growth of the government of leftist President Evo Morales (2006-2019), but upon assuming the presidency in 2020 he found a bleak economic outlook and the Decrease in gas production —Bolivia’s main export product— sealed the end of the MAS economic model.
Long lines of cars form daily at service stations where fuel is scarce. The government needs $2 billion each year to import gasoline and diesel, which it sells at half the price to the local market, but it has fewer and fewer resources because export revenues have decreased. This year, the International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of only 1.6%, which would be the lowest in 25 years if the time of the pandemic is not taken into account.
Against this backdrop, Arce and Morales have become embroiled in a fight for control of the MAS and the 2025 presidential candidacy that has paralyzed the government’s efforts to address the economic crisis. For example, Morales’s allies in Congress have systematically thwarted Arce’s attempts to obtain loans to relieve some of the pressure.
Was the uprising exceptional?
By one count, Bolivia has had more than 190 coup attempts and revolutions since its independence in 1825 in a repetitive cycle of conflict between political elites in urban areas and impoverished rural sectors.
This is not even the first alleged coup attempt in recent years. In 2019, Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president, ran for a third term despite a constitutional ban. He won a disputed vote plagued by accusations of fraud, sparking massive protests that caused 36 deaths and led Morales to resign and flee the country.
The right-wing opposition senator Jeanine Áñez assumed an interim government which the MAS described as a coup d’état.
Arce, Morales’ hand-picked successor, won the 2020 election promising to restore prosperity to Bolivia, once Latin America’s main source of natural gas.
In Photos | Mobilization of soldiers in Murillo Square in Bolivia
Bolivian President Luis Arce denounced “irregular mobilizations by some units of the Bolivian Army.” Shortly afterwards, images showed the deployment of uniformed personnel and armored military vehicles in Murillo Square in La Paz, where the government headquarters are located.
How much political power does Arce have?
Morales, who still has considerable support from coca growers and workers, is apparently unwilling to let Arce run for re-election unopposed. After returning from exile, the charismatic populist announced his plan to enter the 2025 presidential race last year, sparking a battle for control of the fractured MAS.
So much Arce and Morales seek to gain support for himself and undermine his former ally in a political fight that has paralyzed the government’s efforts to confront the economic crisis. According to analysts, the unrest could unleash social outbreaks.
“Arce lacks Evo’s charisma, political skills and legacy but controls the state apparatus,” Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America Program at the Washington-based Wilson Center, said in a text message. “Normally, the next elections would serve as a pressure valve. But with Evo’s candidacy up in the air, the opposition divided and the economy in disarray, Bolivia is clearly on the brink.”
Despite their differences, both leaders were quick to denounce on Wednesday what they called an attempted coup. The same was done by former interim president Áñez, who said on X, formerly Twitter, that “the MAS with Arce and Evo must leave through the vote in 2025.”
Leaders of Chile, Paraguay, Brazil, Ecuador and the European Union also expressed their support.
“We strongly condemn the unacceptable action of force by a sector of that country’s army. We cannot tolerate any breach of the legitimate constitutional order in Bolivia or anywhere else,” said Chilean President Gabriel Boric.
“It is a dynamic situation and there is a long history of military coups in Bolivia, but many national and global power brokers are lining up behind Arce,” said Brian Winter, vice president of the New York-based Council of the Americas.
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