Joe Biden and Donald Trump face each other this morning in the first presidential debate of this electoral cycle. Polls in recent days point to a more favorable race than expected for Donald Trump, who only a few weeks ago was found guilty in the first of the four criminal trials he faces.
Thursday’s meeting is taking place very early, even before the national conventions at which the parties officially choose their candidates. It will also be the first of only two debates to be held in this election. In fact, they will not even be conducted by the independent commission that has organized them in recent decades, but will be led by television networks such as CNN.
The news channel will broadcast the debate this coming morning in which Biden once again monopolizes all the spotlights due to Democratic fears and Republican desire for him to make mistakes as a result of his high age (82 years). The American president’s party hopes that Trump will remind voters of the grittier and more controversial side of him.
These are the 10 keys to what to expect from the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden:
1. Tie in polls. Polls indicate a tie between the candidates. Trump leads in the swing states, although by margins that are usually within statistical error, suggesting that the two debates will be crucial for the undecided.
2. Expectations about Biden. The president faces the perception that his age affects his performance, despite having positively surprised in his last State of the Nation address (SOTU) last March. Speculation is anticipated about his abilities, especially if he makes mistakes in the debate, but also if he does well. Fox News already suggested with SOTU that Biden had taken drugs (and that he will do it again!).
3. Biden’s strategy. Indeed, Biden is expected to take a more aggressive stance against Trump. The president will seek to provoke Trump into gaffes, but his performance and ability to respond quickly will be key to not being portrayed as an old man again.
4. Trump tactics. The Republican Party candidate is known for creating chaos in debates through insults, humor and outrageous statements. It will be interesting to see how he handles his strategy to divert attention from his own mistakes (or if it ends up getting out of hand).
5. Question of abortion. Trump generally avoids talking about abortion, knowing it is a sensitive issue for Republicans. His position could center on a ban after 15 weeks, which is common in Europe but contrasts with previous policies in the United States.
6. Foreign policy. Trump affirms that under his government there were no new wars, although there were bombings and selective assassinations, and criticizes Biden’s current management of international conflicts. Although Trump is far from offering details on how he would handle these issues if he returns to power, it will be interesting to see how he approaches different geopolitical fronts in the debate. Wink to Putin? Do I support Netanyahu? Would he do better? Would he go against what his NATO allies prefer?
7. Border security. Since 2016, Trump has focused his campaign on border security. Biden has attempted to strengthen security there, despite Republican opposition in Congress, which will be a major talking point in the debate. Biden will have to dig deep to understand the extent to which the White House has attempted to tighten border access and Trump has urged his fellow Republicans to block those initiatives. For now, voters trust Trump more than Biden to handle immigration.
8. Economy and inflationInflation will be a central theme. Biden will try to highlight the positive aspects of the economic situation and his policies, while Trump will emphasize rising prices and their impact on voters’ pockets.
9. Trump’s Vice PresidentTrump has indicated that it is “very likely” that his vice presidential candidate will attend the debate in Atlanta. According to NBC News, Trump may announce this even before the debate. If he doesn’t, it remains to be seen which of the rumored candidates appear on television to defend the former president’s performance.
10. Debate format. The debate will be hosted by CNN, with no opening statements and muted microphones for candidates who are not speaking, which will be a particular challenge for Trump.
