Republican candidate Donald Trump has managed to end this first debate without clearly answering any of the direct and specific questions from journalists, nor explaining a single proposal of what he would do if he wins the next election. His strategy of constantly attacking Joe Biden’s ability and results, labelling them as a disaster compared to his mandate, as well as a staging with a clearly more dynamic physical energy have shown that, at least, Trump had a better strategy and perhaps better preparation than his opponent. Trump has come to make a long and repetitive electoral spot. Surely effective.
Trump has also won the non-verbal debate. And the verbal one does not seem to have been won by Joe Biden, nor has he managed to show the supposed dangers of Trump’s return. Biden’s moments of lapses, if not lack of clarity – even confusion – have contributed to fueling the big initial question of this debate: Can Biden resist Trump’s onslaught and aggressiveness? He said he showed up to stop it. Worse tonight he has not shown it, even though he has gone from less to more. Paradoxically, Trump has had a long time coming, and Biden seemed to stand the test of time better.
The moment of the debate in which the age of both of them and their possible limitations to carry out “the hardest job in the world” was discussed was comical and “almost” ridiculous. The debate about his cognitive abilities has ended in a challenge to play golf, to show who has a better handicap. Both have offered an outdated, elitist image of idle retirees who provoked each other to see who hits their club better and harder. In a CBS and YouGov poll, only 28% of the electorate consider Biden “strong”, compared to 66% who think the same of Trump.
Joe Biden arrived at the debate after increasing the harshness of his messages against Trump: his campaign invested $50 million in a spot that describes his rival as a “deranged person” who will do anything for power, in addition to Kamala Harris and others Democratic spokespersons have emphasized the president’s ability to “fight.”
For the first time in several months, Biden has begun to lead voting intentions in some polls. His advantage, however, is small, it is not yet reflected in the close states that will define the election and the most recognized polling averages, such as Real Clear Politics, still have him behind, although only by one point. The situation, however, is an improvement compared to the first five months of the year and reflects that Trump’s conviction in the only trial that will take place before the elections may have affected him among the most moderate voters.
Despite his weakening in the polls and the possible setback among moderate voters, the ruling at the end of May against Trump has further mobilized his support base. His campaign has taken advantage of that momentum to increase financial revenue, an aspect in which he had been behind the Democratic party all year.
Today’s debate will have confirmed the prejudices and apriorisms of each candidate’s hard-core voters. But it will have left the undecided perplexed and immersed in many doubts about the meaning of their vote. Trump’s aggressiveness – although today he has seemed less aggressive and has shown himself to be less dangerous – may be his weakness. And Biden’s weakness may be his strength by showing traits of resistance that generate a bond of affection, even if it is condescending and without enthusiasm. Undecided voters sometimes lean towards the losers. Especially when the winners seem arrogant and intend to humiliate or ridicule their opponents.
Biden has lost the ironic sense of humor that characterized him. We have only seen a few snippets of this, like when he called Trump “crybaby.” But those flashes also illuminated the many moments of fog that have accompanied him in the debate. Trump, on the other hand, has gone to nail all the arguments that he knows are harmful and sow doubts among the still reluctant Democrats and the undecided.
The final balance is very poor: both have shown their limitations. The choice is defined. Voters must choose the least bad of the two. And this lack of mobilizing energy can seriously harm the Democrats. Voting resigned is voting defeated. That is why, despite everything, Trump manages to win, because Biden cannot forcefully open the hope that there is a fight, yet.
