Let us remember that, in May, the blue dollar marked a strong rise: it climbed from $185 in (+17.8%), the biggest climb for a month in the Milei era. June started at $1,205 for purchase and at $1,235 for sale and this June 12 it is already trading at $1,290. In the last two days it was worth $1,300, the intraday record value of the informal. The gap is already close to 45%, worrying for the Government, which had managed to reduce it to around 10% at the beginning of its administration.
The pressure on the blue dollar
“Everything combined to put pressure on all financial dollarswhich influence the blue and are located at a higher level, but everything is very marked by expectations regarding the law,” diagnoses Gustavo Quintan, from PR Operadores de Cambio.
The expert in exchange dynamics points out that The political factor undoubtedly influences the evolution of the blue dollar, Therefore, “a sanction or quick treatment can have an impact by diluting negative expectations and causing price drops.” However, he warns that we still have to wait to see what happens and how the debate goes and what comes out, if it is approved.
For economist Jorge Neyro, “the dynamics of the blue dollar has stabilized in recent days,” but he considers that it is likely “that The Base Law helps give some peace of mind to financiers“.
How the treatment of the Bases law impacts in parallel
Thus, Lupieri warns that “a non-approval of the Bases law could have a greater upward impact than its approval could contribute to calm.” And, as he points out Horacio Miguel Arana, Senior Research Fellow of the International Bases Foundation, “The Bases law is key to credibility that the Government wants and needs to show”.
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He hopes, in that sense, that the dynamics of the blue dollar respond to what happens: with a downward trend if it is approved and an upward trend if it is not. However, he clarifies that “It will also depend on what remains in the way in the vote for each article in particular”, whether there are many modifications or not and the exchange tension will be placed on the vote on the fiscal package.
The factors that are combined with the treatment of the Bases law
But Arana clarifies that what happens with the Bases law will not be the only factor to take into account regarding the dynamics of the informal exchange rate. He explains this the PAIS tax and its possible reduction. He anticipates, in this sense, that, if the Government, “as expressed by Minister Luis Caputo, reduces the tax to 7.5% and does not modify the official one, the blue dollar and the financial ones will show greater stability.”
Likewise, Arana indicates that there are more short-term factors that will influence: such as the payment of the half bonus in June, but he maintains that they will be circumstantial pressures.
June is a month that presents key seasonal elements for the dynamics of blue. Especially in the first fortnight, there is a greater demand for pesos for payment of bonuses, winter vacation advance in some cases, etc. But this trend tends to relax. in the second half of the month because these funds return to the blue dollar market from the hands of workers in search of protecting them from inflation and devaluation.
Thus, although this year the saving capacity is greatly reduced due to the strong recession that liquefies salaries, there is usually an upward trend in the last 15 days. But Quintana warns that, “in Argentina, it is difficult to make forecasts, taking into account sudden changes and news that can alter the outlook.” And in this month of June 2024, the extra elements that could alter the dynamics of the Dolar blue They are more than usual, with the treatment of the Bases law at the forefront.
As stated, the concrete possibility of the sanction of the Bases law can generate a positive expectation that can influence the markets and limit possible increases. It happens that, if this regulatory framework is approved, it could generate more peace of mind because it reinforces the credibility of the Government.
