In any case, in some corners the opposition let it be known that Bases was the hinge. Now, they say, they will be firmer. The tests will be retirement update, educational financing and the return of Fonidprojects that have firepower and that will be able to unite UP and the UCR.
The Government, after months of hitting a wall, understood that it had to do politics. The traditional one, with concessions. Peronism and the dialogueists asked for changes in pension issues, privatizations and other issues, which were modified in the last part of the debate. They joined other arrangements that had been made in the previous negotiation for the ruling to be signed. The figures of the Chief of Staff Guillermo Francos and Vice President Victoria Villarruel grew. They get the cucardas for unblocking the law when it seemed like it was going straight into a deep lethargy.
On the other hand, until now the blockade of Bases It functioned as an excuse for the Government to face the problems that the libertarian administration has. Especially with respect to the economic rebound, which remains foggy on a receding horizon. Now, Milei will have to show tangible results.
Right on
Now, how does it continue? To lower expectations: once the law is enacted, “It is not that the country will begin to grow stratospherically”, as mentioned by the ruling party. Nor if the law did not pass, the country would irremediably sink. “It is an important law, because it gives certain conditions for dollars to arrive, but then there are many other factors,” the waters calmed.
It is true that there are investments that will now benefit from the RIGI, which were already planned without those benefits. But even so, in the North and in Cuyo they see the incentive regime favorably, even in Peronism, to boost investments. More for the energizing effect than for the royalties generated by lithium and mining developments in general. Some buy local clauses were important, but were probably implied. There are local hirings that are done for cost-benefit. Laundering, excessively lax, will be another vacuum cleaner of dollars for the Government. “Let no one expect a rain of investments,” they say in the opposition.
Politically, La Libertad Avanza will have to solve its problems inside. There was less talk about Sandra Pettovello this week, but the splinters of Human Capital continue to explode. The bleeding of officials is not resolved either; continues, as well as the imbalances in management.
“The Executive asks us to have discipline,” said a libertarian legislator. “That we are sitting in our pews, that we gather together. Not that we are waiting to go out in an interview,” she added. An order that costs, in all the trenches of LLA. The fight in the Buenos Aires Legislature, where Karina Milei and Martín Menem They rushed the delivery of the brand new Buenos Aires game to Pilar Ramirez to put together a bloc without Ramiro Marra and the legislators who respond Oscar Zago, it’s a sample. The legal problems to form the party in Mendoza and Río Negro, with complaints about fraudulent endorsements, another.
Judicialization in sight (or skip Congress)
The other axis is how the treatment continues in Deputies. The Government has already said it: it hopes to incorporate in the Lower House what the Senate rejected. Earnings and Personal Assets. Regarding the first tax, a series of governors, especially northerners, feel that support for Bases without the Profits candy, which swells the co-shareable mass, fell on deaf ears. But this tribute is also of interest to the Casa Rosada.
The strategy, for example, was the axis of the Thursday meeting between Francos and the dialogue blocks. “Deputies did a poor job with this Base Law, they sent us a mess. We fixed as much as possible. Out of respect for the work of the Senate, it must accept outright as it came out,” the Jujuy senator Carolina Moisés.
However, by insisting on the text despite the rejection, Profits and Personal Assets are headed for a court battle. One part of the library indicates that the titles rejected in the Senate (Reviewing Chamber) cannot be treated again until 2025. And the other part, that the law was approved in general and that the deputies (as the Chamber of origin) have the power to vote for the original text.
On one side of the library, the constitutionalist Andrés Gil Domínguez argued: “What can the House of origin do if the reviewing Chamber approves a bill with corrections or additions? Accept the version of the reviewing Chamber or insist on the original wording, gathering the same majority that was obtained in the reviewing Chamber when the corrections and additions were approved. You cannot insist on the regulatory sections that were rejected or not treated by the reviewing Chamber”. And he added: “When article 81 refers to the total rejection of a bill by one of the Chambers, it refers to the genus (total) that includes the species (partial). When the House of origin approves a bill, it passes to the reviewing Chamber. All or part of the bill rejected by the reviewing Chamber does not return to the Chamber of origin nor can it be repeated in the sessions of the same year.. “You cannot revert to the titles (with their respective articles) that were rejected by the Senate until next year.”
On the other part of the library, the constitutionalist Félix Lonigro told Ámbito: “When a Chamber gives half-sanction to a bill as it was Deputies at the time and it passes to the other Chamber, the Reviewing Chamber, and rejects the project, but rejects everything, that project cannot be dealt with until the sessions parliamentary elections the following year. In this case the Senate did not reject the entire project, it rejected a part, and returned to the Chamber of Deputies as the Chamber of origin. Then some colleagues of mine say that the rejected part, since the entire Profit part was rejected, cannot be dealt with until the following year. I say no, not at all, because if the rejection of Profits occurred but the other part remained, then the law is a whole, it is a set, then the law was not totally rejected.” “This rejection of Earnings must be considered a modification to the total law, so that, if it is a modification, the Chamber of origin now has the possibility of insisting on the original project and therefore reincorporating that title rejected by the Senate“, completed the lawyer when asked by this medium.
Thus, in the event that the attempt of the ruling party and its allies prevails, those harmed will of course take the case to court. Then another game will begin. Although Milei will have another card: delegated powers, to govern by decree.
Magic of negotiation in parliament, which led the people of Santa Cruz to be absent in that particular vote, which ended in a tie at 35.
