They remain just over four months until the US presidential election on November 5 and this Thursday That race faces a moment that could be decisive: the first debate of two planned between the Democratic president Joe Biden and the former Republican president Donald Trump.
It’s about a high voltage encounter between two men who, in addition to being politically opposed, feel a deep mutual animosity. Many Americans feel apathy and even rejection faced with the fact of having to choose again, as in 2020, between Biden, now 81, and Trump, 78. Even so, the expectation before the debate is maximum and there is a lot at stake.
These are the keys to a duel that represents “a crucial moment“, as Democratic congressman and Biden ally James Clyburn has said, and where Republican strategists like Karl Rove see the potential for “a great inflection point“.
The debate, which for the first time since 1988 is not organized by the Presidential Debates Commission but by a private network, cnnstarts in an Atlanta studio at 9 pm (3 a.m. on Friday in mainland Spain).
It will last 90 minutes and will have two commercial breaksin which the two candidates will not be able to interact with their campaign teams.
There will be no opening statements and candidates will have two minutes to give your answers to the two moderators (CNN political reporters Jake Tapper and Dana Bash), one for replica and another for counter-reply. The Microphones will be muted when it is not your turn to speak.
Biden and Trump will stand with lecterns and will be provided with a notebook, pencil and a bottle of water but will not be able to have notes.
Due to the conditions agreed between the candidates, and fulfilling a request from the Biden team, there will be no public on the set, something that has not happened since 1960, when the first of the televised debates between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon was held and that will leave Trump without the usual encouragement that the reactions of his followers give him.
With a toss of a coin the location and order to close the debate has been decided. Biden He gave priority to position and chose to be placed in the right of the screen. He left with it trump choose about the turn to intervene and the Republican chose to have the last word.
Robert Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate, did not meet the requirements established by CNN to participate in the debate.
When they enter the Atlanta studio this Thursday it will be the first time that Biden and Trump are in the same room since October 2020when they were measured precisely in the second and last debate of that campaign that was developed in the middle of the pandemic (one of the three meetings scheduled then was suspended when Trump became infected with covid).
Shortly after, Biden won those elections but Trump did not accept that victory and the Republican’s efforts to reverse the legitimate results and prevent the peaceful transition of power, which culminated in the assault on the Capitol, are behind two of the four criminal cases against him. In another of those cases, the one that accused him of trying to interfere in the 2016 elections by paying to silence Stormy Daniels and falsifying accounting documents to hide it, he has already been convicted, becoming the first person to have occupied the Oval Office, which is a convicted criminal.
That sentence (for which sentencing on July 11) has helped Biden improve somewhat in the polls, although Trump maintains lead in polls in handful of key states who decide the elections and, in addition, have seen donations to his campaign skyrocket after the verdict.
Although the impact of debates is difficult to measure, study experts and strategists know that help a small percentage of voters decide who were undecided or had not yet fully engaged in the campaign. And although these percentages are low, they can make a difference in disputed elections, like this 2024.
The debate will serve to focus on the central political issues in a campaign with which many voters have not yet connected and for the two candidates to redouble their main plot lines.
If Trump’s rallies are any guide, you will hear him repeatedly talk about border and of immigrationan issue where his speech without factual basis goes to ensure that the majority of those who arrive without papers to the US are criminals or mentally ill and to link them to an increase in violent crime In U.S.A.
It is also anticipated that the palpable majority feeling of discontent among Americans with inflation to attack Biden, and that will affect the fact that, during the Democrat’s mandate, the United States has been involved in both the war in Ukraine like that of Israel in Loop.
The Democrat, for his part, faces the challenge of defending his economic policies, which have led to the American economy to a situation of growth, without minimizing that the population’s frustration due to rising prices is a reality. In this field the Trump’s proposal to impose 10% tariffs to all imports, a measure that is anticipated to be even more inflationary, will open a means of escape and attack for Biden.
The Democrat is also expected to point the finger at Trump for the rollback of reproductive rightsintensified since the Supreme Court With a conservative supermajority secured with three judges appointed by the Republican, two years ago he repealed the constitutional protection of the right to abortion.
It will also be his role to awaken many voters of the notable amnesia that show about the chaos that was experienced during the Trump Administration, abyss who loomed over American democracy with his attempts to reverse the legitimate results of the elections and the radical agenda that the Republican has proposed for his potential second term.
The questions and the game of expectations
There are other topics that go beyond the agenda or program that make the debate a unpredictable and momentous moment and also full of questions. Will the most measured Trump of the second debate of 2020 appear or the one who made the first debate then an embarrassing spectacle? To what extent will he renew his attacks on the 2020 results? Will the recent conviction of Hunter Biden, the president’s son, explode when he himself arrives with the conviction in New York?
There is, however, nothing possibly more significant than the judgment that the debate will help make Americans about the Biden’s physical and mental state at 81 years oldan issue that, beyond manipulated videos and attacks by Republicans highlighting their supposed decline, provokes genuine anxiety among many Democrats.
The Biden team’s confidence is that the president, as on other important occasions such as the State of the Union address, will have a vigorous performance that helps to dispel doubts. Any slip or awkward momentson the contrary, would fuel attacks and guarantee viral exploitation.
Trump has even said that Biden will appear “everything placed”, openly or tacitly implying that he receives “supplements” or, directly, “drugs” (at a rally last Saturday he said that they would give him “an injection in the ass” and frequently in his actions he has come to link it with cocaine that was found in the White House). But the Republican has also begun to Modulate your message to moderate expectations about a poor performance by Biden. From insulting him as someone who “can’t put two sentences together” and mocking him, he has gone on to publicly assume that “He will be a worthy debater”“and recently in a podcast he said: “I don’t want to underestimate him”.
The debate marks milestones in many ways, and not just because of the advanced age of the candidates or the fact that Trump arrives as a convicted criminal.
Never before has it been celebrated so early a debate in a presidential race and neither Trump nor Biden are, in fact, the official candidates. Although both secured their primary victories in March, their nominations will not be ratified until conventions of their respective parties. The republican takes place in Milwaukee (Wisconsin) between July 15 and 18 and the Democrat in Chicago (Illinois) between August 19 and 22.
Leaving aside the Presidential Debates Commission, which is outside the organization for the first time since 1988, the candidates have agreed to two meetings: this first organized by CNN and a second organized by the ABC network that is scheduled for September 10. Biden’s campaign has argued that holding one in June, rather than the traditional September and October, makes sense to present proposals to voters. before early voting begins.
Biden It has been conscientiously prepared for the debate. Has passed seven days surrounded by a large team of at least 16 advisors and allies in Camp Davidwhere a hangar and a projection room have been set up for rehearsals and where his personal lawyer, Bob Bauer, as in 2020, has played the role of Trump.
He republicanfor its part, has once again avoided those classic preparations and has been tanning itself in ralliesalthough last two days he spent them at his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Floridaholding preparatory discussions with allies. Among them has been Kellyanne Conway, with whom he has especially prepared the issue of reproductive rights, which until now has proven to be a mobilizing element favorable to the Democrats. Also the Senators Marco Rubio and JD Vancetwo of the names that are heard in the pools about who will choose as vice president in his candidacy.
