Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit North Korea this week.
Last Wednesday, an official from the South Korean Presidential Office met with journalists as part of President Yoon Seok-yeol’s state visit to Kazakhstan and officially referred to President Putin’s plan to visit the isolated country. Asian.
There are also reports that Pyongyang has already begun preparations for the Russian president’s visit.
If the trip to North Korea actually happens, it will be Putin’s first visit to the country in 24 years – the last was in 2000, when Kim Jong-il, the father of current leader Kim Jong-un, was still was in power.
The Russian leader accepted Kim’s invitation to visit North Korea in September last year, when the two leaders met at the Vostochny cosmodrome in the Russian Far East.
And while last year’s meeting between the leaders of North Korea and Russia was a process to lay the foundations for the relationship between the two countries, there are analysts who say the new meeting will be used to show a bond that has advanced significantly.
The focus of the event is expected to focus on military cooperation between the two armies. and it is expected that it will also serve as an opportunity to strengthen cooperation in various areas, including the economy, culture, agriculture, tourism and the social field.
In particular, it will be interesting to see to what extent President Putin will mention North Korea’s exchange of advanced weapons and possession of nuclear weapons.
However, there is also a view that this North Korea-Russia summit is more likely to end up being an “event” than a discussion to get real results.
We present 3 reasons that explain the rapprochement between Putin and Kim.
1. Military cooperation: Russia needs weapons, North Korea needs technical support
Nearly two and a half years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the interdependence between North Korea and Russia continues to strengthen as they provide each other with supplies.
Nam Sung-wook, a professor at the Department of Unification and Diplomacy at Korea University, said that, at this point, the agenda of the meeting will have the focus of defining “how many more weapons manufactured by North Korea will be provided to Russia in the future.”
Others say that there is a possibility that this meeting will go beyond short-term agreements, focused on the supply of conventional weapons by North Korea, and establish the foundations for much closer military cooperation through of programs such as the joint development of weapons systems.
There is also speculation that North Korea may want more than just food and fuel in exchange for the weapons it provides to Russia.
In particular, Professor Nam predicted that North Korea – which failed to launch a military reconnaissance satellite last May – will use the meeting to discuss Russia’s support for its aerospace technology.
The explanation is that North Korea will need help from Russia, a space technology powerhouse, to successfully launch additional satellites.
North Korea is also predicted to seek technology support from Russia to increase the resolution of reconnaissance satellites and nuclear submarines.
Meanwhile, Professor Nam considered it unlikely that the issue of nuclear weapons sharing would ever become a public issue.
Currently, President Putin has been sensitive to the entry of Western weapons into Ukraine and their threat to the Russian mainland. He has even mentioned the possibility of using nuclear weapons.
However, since cooperation or exchange of nuclear weapons between the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia could generate great opposition from countries such as the US and China, it is expected that not much will be revealed about any nuclear discussions that occur. during the meeting.
2. Economic cooperation: Russia wants labor, North Korea wants to earn foreign currency
Russia and North Korea are also expected to discuss expanding economic cooperation.
Kang Dong-wan, professor of political science and diplomacy at Dong-A University, said that What North Korea needs most from Russia today is “workers’ income in foreign currency.”
This means the possibility of North Korea sending additional workers to Russia may grow.
Russia also needs manpower to rebuild buildings due to the war. A significant number of workers are needed to recover from the damage caused by the war in Ukraine and rebuild the economy.
Russian media outlet Vedomosti quoted a diplomatic source as saying: “The two leaders could discuss whether to bring in migrant workers from North Korea, given that Russia is experiencing severe labor shortages due to troop mobilization and young people fleeing abroad after the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, in accordance with the sanctions approved by the UN Security Council against North Korea, North Korean workers are prohibited from working abroad and all those who were previously abroad had to be repatriated before December 22, 2019.
Therefore, it is very likely that if Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, officially seeks to hire North Korean workers, it will create an uproar in the international community.
The focus will be on how the two countries will pursue economic cooperation in the face of opposition and diplomatic pressure from the international community.
3. Cultural exchange: will the tourist channel between North Korea and Russia open?
In February, Russia resumed group trips to North Korea, which had been suspended due to Covid-19.
Additionally, earlier this month, Passenger train service between North Korea and Russia resumed for the first time in about four years.
According to the government of Russia’s Primorsky Krai region, more than 400 Russian tourists visited North Korea between February and May of this year.
Russian travel agency Vostok Intru sells a five-day, four-night tour package to North Korea for $750 on its website.
Group trips to North Korea are also offered and can be booked until September.
The page offers various tourist products such as routes through Baekdu Mountain, a tour of the history of North Korea and an itinerary for the anniversary of the victory in the Fatherland Liberation War.
As for the reason behind the recent rise in tourism in the country, Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the University of North Korea Studies, explained: “This is because tourism is not simply a means to earn foreign currency, but also plays an important role in improving relationships through direct exchange between people.
added that Russians visiting North Korea are of great help in promoting friendly relations between the two countries.
The analysis is that as people-to-people visits increase, the interdependence between the two countries strengthens, which can help ease military tensions.
Professor Kim said visits by foreign tourists help alleviate North Korea’s image as a closed and dangerous country in the international community.
In this way, North Korean tourism is valued as an important means of social and cultural exchange and improvement of the international image beyond economic aspects.
However, there have been recent cases of group tour cancellations to North Korea.
A travel agency announced that a four-day group tour to the country scheduled for May 31 was canceled due to a lack of applicants.
Due to North Korea’s own characteristics – it lacks tourism infrastructure and restricts the free movement of foreigners – it is a difficult industry to expand.
Professor Kang Dong-wan pointed out that this summit between North Korea and Russia could be an opportunity to discuss tourism cooperation.
