The coin is in the air. Neither the ruling party and its allies have the guaranteed votes to approve the reduced version of the Bases law and its fiscal package in the Senate, nor would Unión por la Patria be able to add allies to reject the two projects.
The most optimistic version among libertarian negotiators, which indicated that they had enough hands for general approval but questioned the fate of some articles, was diluted with the scandals and complaints about corruption and the latest statements by Javier Milei who said he loved his status as a mole to “destroy the State from within.” The Chief of Staff himself, Guillermo Francos, publicly admitted that despite his optimism he was not certain about the vote in the upper house.
In this context, the ten governors of what was Together for Change came out yesterday to the aid of the Government with a document of “strong support for the ratification and sanction” of the laws and in search of aligning their own troops, twisting its arm to the rebels and provide a parliamentary victory to Rosada. A strategy that was overshadowed when radicalism itself claimed that the document was false.
Meanwhile, the Executive drew up a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, they strive to get the votes, reduce the changes and ensure that no one gets two-thirds under the threat of withdrawing the laws from Congress. And in parallel, he is working in Deputies to ratify the half-sanction and discard the modifications that were negotiated with senators and governors.
Adjusted numbers
With very fine numbers, the possibility of a tie began to take flight. In this hypothetical case, LLA has an advantage: with Milei traveling to the G7 on Wednesday night and Vice President Victoria Villarruel in charge of the Executive, the libertarian from San Luis Bartolomé Abdala will preside over the session as provisional president of the legislative body and will have the option of a double vote to break the tie in favor of the Government. Even so, with the acceptance of the changes to the text that came from the Deputies, the final word will once again be up to the Lower House: whether it accepts the modifications or insists on its original text of half a sanction.
In that context, the ruling party’s concern would turn to the vote in particular. There are several points in which the distribution of wills is very tight: from the delegated powers to the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), passing through privatizations – where those of Argentinian airlines and the Mail are the most resisted– and the restitution of Profits, among others.
Lousteau’s ruling
The ruling party also has its sights on the opinion it presented Martin Lousteau, which does not contemplate delegated powers and has many changes from the original project. And although they consider that the proposal will not succeed, LLA fears that, on the other hand, it could garner will to make some articles stumble. Especially, if UxP folds with the objective of trying to reach two-thirds of the votes (48 senators) and in this way block Deputies from insisting on the half-sanction because the ruling party and allies could not achieve that special majority in the lower House.
However, not all UxP trust that legislative strategy. Some believe that if it is difficult to get 37 votes to reject the laws (it has 33 senators of its own), it will be more difficult to reach two-thirds to support some articles with modifications. Anyway, we will have to see how the debate develops and the forces in the room are accommodated.
Given the threat that Lousteau’s move represents for the Government, the radical governors came out to cross it. They dusted off the JxC logo and managed to bring together the elected leaders under the seal of the Macrista alliance to broadcast a document aligned with the Casa Rosada (see separate). The text not only targets Lousteau, but is also a warning for the senator and president of the Buenos Aires UCR, Maximiliano Abad, who followed in the footsteps of the head of the UCR against the mega DNU.
Another front for the libertarians are the Santa Cruz senators José María Carambia and Natalia Gadano, who do not respond unconditionally to Claudio Vidal. Along with Abad, they are the three senators who would jeopardize the majority that La Rosada hoped to achieve. And Lucila Crexell from Neuquén joined the list, upset because Governor Rolando Figueroa closed the personal negotiation for her appointment as UNESCO ambassador in Paris in exchange for her favorable vote.
The debate
At the meeting of Parliamentary Work that Villarruel convened yesterday in advance, the rules of the debate were agreed that will start on Wednesday at 10 in the morning, with numbers of speakers and times for each block. UxP managed to impose – with the support of other benches – that the discussion of the Bases and fiscal package be done separately.
Which would open the possibility of moving to an intermediate room if the debate on the first of the laws extends, although that possibility was not contemplated in the Labor agreement will depend on what happens in the room. Meanwhile, pressure is growing from some pro-dialogue sectors to postpone the debate on the fiscal package until the Government guarantees that it will respect in Deputies the modifications that the Senate introduced to the project.
