Milei is euphoric about the approval of the Bases Law, but remains on alert for Profits and the exit from the stocks

It was 3 in the morning when Javier Milei He got on the ARG01 to fly to Italy. In the humid early morning of Thursday, he did not show any fatigue from the tension of a long night. On the contrary, far from being exhausted, he looked exultant. He would leave for Europe with the newly approved Bases law, the China swap enabled and the certainty that the next day the IMF and inflation would give him more good news. “4-0,” said someone on top of the plane with soccer code.

In the presidential ship, he was barely accompanied, apart from the assistants and security members, his sister Karina -who went to sleep when they took off-, the president of the council of economic advisors, Demian Reidel and the national deputy Fernando Iglesias. The three of them, alone, ate pumpkin soup with non-alcoholic drinks in the air – because they don’t serve wine in the libertarian era – when it was almost 4 in the morning and the plane had already surpassed 33 thousand feet. They stayed for two hours talking about the lineup of news that allowed him, after the two most difficult weeks of his administration, to breathe relief.

Also read: With a hug, Milei sought to relax the relationship with the Pope after the meetings with Kicillof and Aerolíneas union members

Despite the good news, Milei is especially excited about planning her international speeches. She polished on air the details of the speech on artificial intelligence in development that she wrote with Reidel. The context was ideal. Before boarding, the guests of the delegation had to hand over their cell phones so no one was scrolling the minute by minute that continued in Buenos Aires with the discussion of the fiscal package that ended up stuck.

The President usually avoids recognizing the vertigo into which the Government entered with the Petovello case. In his conversations, even in private, he only talks about operations against her, but nothing about the incompetence in the functioning of the Ministry of Human Capital.

Now they seem like scenes from another century, but just six days ago he spent four hours in Olivos meeting with the minister at the highest peak of conflict in that portfolio. It was the same week that he personally had to go to Petovello’s office to convince her not to give up. The saga of this story has disappeared from center stage, but it is far from being resolved. No one can predict the near future of that battle front, but everyone knows that the skirmishes will return. Not only from the multiple judicial fronts, which continue their course. Also about the future of Petovello, who arrived at the weekend confident of continuing.

Human Capital is not the only focus of attention. Several areas of the Cabinet are in the crosshairs of a renewal. In fact, a few hours ago Caputo’s number two, Joaquín Cottani, He officially reported that he was leaving the Government. Of course, the outgoing official took care of himself and argued “personal matters.”

Is there a relaunch?

In the decompression of the good news, yesterday on the first floor of La Rosada they were thinking about the steps to follow. In principle, still looking for candidates to cover the infinite number of third lines that are vacant or occupied by officials from previous administrations. In this casting, he remains frozen in his relationship with former president Mauricio Macri, who these days shows extreme concern about some future developments of the Government. He was waiting for the Base Law to speak again. Now is the time: Will it be different with the intensity that he is doing it in private? Will you say the level at which your management alert reaches? Will you criticize the sending of Lijo’s document? He is defining it right now.

If you still do not receive Luciana Geuna’s analysis in your email,

subscribe here

The Casa Rosada has a inevitable challenge. “The clock is ticking for us,” said the most influential official when he thought about the moment of the law’s approval. He is the same one who celebrated the delay in the discussion of the project that bogged down the approval. “It was all weather in our favor.” Now there are just ten days left to mend cracks. A cabinet relaunch will not be announced, but they will try to order a organizational chart that continues to appear chaotic.

The AFI and the appointment of Federico Sturzenegger, who had two meetings with Santiago Caputo in recent days, are on the agenda. It was not established what his role will be. There is discomfort in economics, not for poster reasons. Toto Caputo wants to be clear about the powers of a man who makes him uncomfortable. That definition will have to be given by the President himself when he gets off the plane that will bring him from Europe at the weekend and meets with Sturzenegger.

It will be a few days in the country to make several decisions. The announcement of the reduction of Country tax which cannot happen until the parliamentary process of the fiscal package is completed. Could there be news with the stocks? It’s another race against time.

In Economics, they study that if they do not take the opportunity to do so when the gap narrows again, the opportunities will once again strain the gaze of the market and the IMF: the trap of sustaining the decline in inflation is that a way out of the stocks would move that index indisputably good thing that the government achieved.

New patriotic day

Regaining the centrality of the agenda is always a priority in the libertarian world. Yesterday they began to think relaunch of the May Pact. Fantasy or reality, the brainstorming includes the possibility of establishing a new national day for the signing of this long-term governance agreement. Among the options is July 14, a key day for the French because the storming of the Bastille is celebrated. In Argentina, it falls on Sunday this year and the President and his entourage are tempted to aim for that “revolutionary” day for the call that was truncated with the delay of the Bases law.

The presidential small table seeks to maintain tension in Congress. When the Bases issue and the fiscal package are completely finished, they will push the safety laws by Patricia Bullrich -anti-mafia, age of imputability- and anti-caste projects. It works better to have someone to fight with. Political scientist Pablo Knopoff explained it last night on TN: “Yesterday, the Milei that had grown the least, which is the Milei Presidente, grew. There are three great Mileis: the international disseminator – which was seen for example with Vox in Spain -; the serial challenger, which we see on networks, and there is also the Milei Presidente.”

Knopoff says that Milei “has a lot of comfort in the first two roles because the world receives him well and because it is comfortable for him to challenge power and it is comfortable for him to say that he has no power. Now, it is her turn to be more of a President and less of a candidate.” It is an open question.

Only the fiscal package matters

In the middle, Guillermo Francos met with the dialogue deputies to articulate the remaining process. “We only care about the fiscal package,” they heard him say. The Government needs to redirect the destination of the Income Tax and Personal Property Tax. He is also interested in privatizable companies that had to give in to obtain support, but there is no concern there. They could insist separately. But in addition to the collection need, there is, within Title V, Chapter II of the “Palliative and relevant fiscal measures”, a trap which has the President and his Minister of Economy on alert since they took office.

If the approval of one of the articles in that chapter is not reversed, for 1.5 million Argentine employees, the AFIP could take away the money that entered their salary in the two months at the end of 2023 when the plan was approved. money for the Income Tax, but they left without voting on the law necessary for the collection agency to justify the lack of deduction of that tax.

Is very technical and tangled, but Minister Caputo heard it clearly from a key official: “If this article is not approved, the university march will be an anecdote next to the social reaction that will generate that we charge that money to the people” .

Also read: The first meeting between Milei and Biden at the summit of the main world leaders

In the Senate vote, the Earnings title was lowered entirely. Time passes and the Economy is desperate for a solution