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Allan Lichtmanprofessor of history at American University and known for his impressive prediction recordHas revealed Who do you think will win the US presidential election in 2024?. The historian, who has been correct with his methodology in nine of the last 10 votes, with the exception of George Bush’s victory over Al Gore in 2000, carries out his rigorous analysis based on historical data and political patterns.
Lichtman’s secret to predicting elections lies in his “Keys to the White House” system, developed together with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok. It consists of 13 indicators that are formulated as true or false questions. If five or fewer of these “keys” are false, the political party in power remains in the White House. However, if six or more are false, a victory is predicted for the opposing party. This method is based on the stability and general conditions of the countrywhile it does not take into consideration individual candidates.
In 2020, Lichtman correctly predicted that Biden would defeat Trump, based on several factors that disfavored the representative of the Republican Party, including the economic recession and social unrest. After that success, many now look to this expert to obtain clarity about the next elections next November 5 in the US.
In dialogue with Fox News DigitalLichtman has noted that, although it is early for a definitive prediction, there are several key factors that are already influencing the 2024 election race. In this sense, he warns that Democrats’ decision to keep Joe Biden as candidate will be crucial. “With Biden running, he wins my incumbency key: acting president. He wins the key to the match contest: no contest. Essentially, that means he wins two keys right off the bat,” explains Lichtman. This suggests that, in his methodology, Biden starts with a significant lead.
However, Lichtman also points out that Biden has fallen into some important keys such as the “key to the mandate”due to Democratic losses in the 2022 midterm elections, and the “key to charisma”given that Biden does not have the presence or the personality of a Franklin Roosevelt or a John F. Kennedy. The historian points out that other factors, such as the emergence of a strong third-party candidate, major social unrest or failures in foreign policy, could tip the balance against the current president.
As to donald trumpLichtman emphasizes that, until now, your legal problems have not significantly eroded their support base. However, the reaction of moderate and independent voters will be crucial. “We don’t know how this could affect them. So we have to observe over time and not rely on instantaneous and unstable feedback,” she considered.
However, he did not downplay the importance of judicial scandals of the Republican leader: “We have an unprecedented situation at the moment. Never before have we had a former president, or, for that matter, a presidential candidate from a major party, even accused of a crime, much less convicted of 34 serious crimes”.
Meanwhile, the university professor stressed that, regardless of the candidates, The key to winning elections is presenting a clear and convincing vision for the country. “This, he argues, is what has defined successful presidential campaigns throughout history, from Ronald Reagan in 1980 to Barack Obama in 2008.”The candidates themselves have to carry out different types of campaigns. If you are a starter, what have you done and what do you hope to do? If you are a challenger, what is your clear vision for the United States?” stated the specialist.
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