Was a breath After the turbulence in the markets and devaluation rumors which the Minister of Economy came out to deny, amidst pressure to patch the adjustment plan.
With that backdrop, Javier Milei and Luis Caputo came out in the last few hours to offer a reduction in the PAIS tax from 17.5 to 7.5% once the reforms are approved in Congress. It would be the first important step to begin the exit from the stockssince this tax works as a change control by setting a higher differential dollar for the credit card purchases in dollars and imports of goods. But it got complicated.
In a report, the bank BTG Pactual spoke of a “political victory” in Congress, but with “significant” concessions. He said the Senate ripped key components out of the law and they “diluted” it, although it can still be reversed in Deputies. Not only privatizations were reduced from 41 to 6, also The increase in Profits and the reduction in Personal Assets were rejected. “It doesn’t make it difficult, prevents the reduction of the PAIS tax”they threw the rant in Economy.
Today, this tax is one of the supports of the fiscal surplus, with $4.8 trillion a year (almost 1 point of GDP). To reduce it, Caputo planned to “replace” it with resources from the Bases Law and the fiscal package.
According to official calculations, the change in Profits contribute 0.4% and Personal Assets, moratorium and money laundering, 0.5% of GDP. In total, about 1 point of GDP, although half is “transitory” because the money laundering is a one-time and He has already lost a semester without that income.
Close to the minister they assure that the reduction of the PAIS tax will allow the exchange gap to be reduced. “Imports are going to be cheaper and lower the importing exchange rate, the same dollar card, They don’t have long life“, they noted in an official office. The first is trading today at $1,061 and the second at $1,474, a gap of 17 and 63% with respect to the wholesale dollar. The problem continues to be time and credibility.
Daniel Marx believes that the approval of the Bases Law and the fiscal package with the income from the harvest could be used to accelerate the exit from the stocks, including mechanisms to accumulate reserves. “The passage of time will probably work against it,” she warned.
But others are much more skeptical. “It’s stupid“They don’t have anything,” said one of the city’s leaders that Caputo put on his blacklist.
This week the minister used the tribune of the Hilton Hotel and La Rural to rant against his detractors. He said that the economy was a patient with “terminal cancer” and “metastasis”, who needed a “surgeon” and called anyone who asked for a “clinical doctor” a “salame”. He was a cross hook to Carlos Melconianthe economist who last week criticized him for the lack of an economic plan and compared him to a “traumatologist.”
“I don’t see that they want to get out of the trap, they are financiers“, fired a financial guru after listening to Caputo at the Puerto Madero hotel. He identified three reasons: the flattened dollar, the fear of abandoning the restrictions and the lack of a program to break the inflationary inertia. Although the data May showed the biggest drop since January 2022, touching 4.2% monthly, The postponed rate increase could cause it to rebound to 6% in June. A see-saw.
The business community does not lose faith in “a swerve”. The Liaison Table requests a reduction in withholdings; the cereal companies, the improvement of dollar blend; and the banks, the “flexibility” to operate cash with settlement.
Santiago Bausili surprised the banking chambers in a reserved meeting on May 3 in the morning at the Central Bank, where he suggested the use of checks or pesos for real estate operations linked to mortgage loans. “People want green,” was the response from the entities.
The head of the BCRA asked them to take to the field, in exchange for allowing them to set certain conditions (life insurance, fire insurance, coverage, etc.) and the elimination of parking to buy MEP dollars with the pesos of the loan, specified by the CNV. Since then, Banco Nación has already approved 3,000 loans and received 25,000 applications for an average amount of $71 million, while Banco Hipotecario registered 145,000 simulations on its website.
He great test There will be debt payments starting in July and the greatest difficulty in buying foreign currency due to the time of year. With negative reserves of between US$1,500 and US$2,300 million, the negative stock could fall to US$5,000 million, fueling greater fragility if the Government does not obtain fresh silver. “Argentina loses reserves in the third quarter“It’s natural…we have room to lose more than US$3 billion,” Milei said on Wednesday in La Rural.
