In Atlanta, at nine tonight (local time), the long-awaited first presidential debate will begin again, pitting Joe Biden against Donald Trump, just as it happened four years ago. The headquarters of the CNN network are located in Atlanta. The format is absolutely new and introduces some important modifications with respect to the tradition created in recent decades. The outcome of the debate will be conditioned by a series of fundamental keys:
The expectations. In 2020, Trump did not do well in the debates. It was concluded that they were decisive in tipping the balance in Biden’s favor. Curiously, the Republican candidate has changed his discourse in recent weeks. He has gone from saying that he was going to crush “half a person” in the debate to declaring that “Biden will be a worthy debater.” His advisers have convinced him that extending the expectation of victory too high could harm him if Biden holds up well in the fight.
The roles. There will be a tough debate focused on disqualifying the rival, rather than selling one’s own abilities. The key to the clash will be to see which of the two demonstrates that the other contender is more incapable of being president of the United States. Biden seeks the role of “wise and firm in the face of a convicted criminal,” according to his advisors. On the other hand, the Republican leader will try to present his opponent as an old man who does not have the physical and mental conditions to perform that role and who drags his son Hunter’s problems with the law.
Age. Never in history have two candidates of such advanced age met in a presidential debate: Biden’s 81 years old compared to Trump’s 78 years. Republican sectors have been sending warning messages for weeks about the Democratic candidate’s inability to last 90 minutes against a Trump who likes to exhibit his physical strength and an always threatening and invasive tone. This apparent inequality between the two can be turned around if Biden manages to hold out and emerge unscathed. Trump himself and some of his leading opinion leaders have even openly suggested that the Democratic leader could attend the meeting after having consumed a dose of cocaine. This is the environment.
The tone. On September 29, 2020, the two leaders staged in Cleveland what was considered the muddiest and nastiest confrontation in the history of the United States. Trump was especially virulent and rude, resorting to all kinds of insults, interruptions and rudeness. It was widely concluded that he got his strategy wrong. For different analysts, that night was key to understanding why Biden beat Trump in that year’s elections. In fact, weeks later, in Nashville, Trump radically changed his tone to reduce tension as much as possible and avoid arousing the antipathy of moderate voters.
Mechanics. The Democrats have managed to impose a format in which opponents will not be able to interrupt each other. While one speaks, the other will have his microphone turned off. It is assumed that he could benefit Biden, who will not have to wait to make himself heard in the face of Trump’s usually undisciplined performance. On the contrary, some specialists believe that, in reality, with this staging, the Republican leader will be able to better control his profile without running the risk of falling once again into his tone as a rude and rude bully.
The preparation. These days, Joe Biden has locked himself in the Camp David residence with his team of preparers, led by Ron Klain, his former chief of staff, considered one of the best specialists in this matter. He has worked with his usual technique of replaying the debate with the participation of another of the trusted advisors, lawyer Bob Bauer, who played the role of Trump in the rehearsals. They did so successfully in 2020. For their part, Trump’s communications team has insisted that they were going to limit themselves to working on arguments discussion sessions. Senators he completely trusts such as JD Vance or Marco Rubio have helped in the preparation. Some of his advisors from his presidential period have also participated, such as Kellyanne Conway and Stephen Miller. They try to give the image that they are avoiding excessive theatrics in the face of a Biden whom they present as a corseted and remote-controlled candidate.
The topics. The main arguments of each candidate seem clear. Biden will attack Trump for his status as a convicted criminal awaiting sentencing. He will also highlight his controversial position on abortion and present him as a threat to democracy and without a solid and convincing economic program. For Trump’s part, his main arguments will focus on Biden’s old age, the excessive rise in inflation and the lack of control over immigration. He will also openly criticize Biden’s inability to resolve the open conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
Staging. With the new rules agreed, there will be no live audience in the studio. A priori, seems like a disadvantage for Trump, who has a greater command of the show. A colder debate can balance the forces and even favor the speech of a more relaxed and restrained Biden. The confrontation will be hosted by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, two of CNN’s main figures. As usual, Trump has already anticipated that he expects partial work from journalists in favor of his opponent. By lottery, Biden has had the option to choose a position on the set and has chosen to be on the right of the screen, the same location that he had during his good performance in 2020.
The real objective. At the end, we will talk about who won the debate. The determining factor is to what extent it will influence undecided voters in some States that show a situation of practical tie. Again, as happened in 2016, everything can end in rust belt (the rust belt), in the lake area in the north of the country. In Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania the polls give very close results. Trump won the presidency in 2016 by beating Hillary Clinton by only 67,000 votes in those three states, after 137 million Americans went to the polls and Clinton beat Trump by three million votes in the national result. Biden and Trump will speak for the entire United States, but no one should be surprised if they launch some dog whistle towards the undecided voters who live in that area. They will possibly decide who will win in November.
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