With 21 days left for legislative elections that look like presidential elections in France, the Lepenist National Regrouping (RN) has entered into an accelerated reconversion process to appear as a moderate and acceptable party.ready to take power; a profound marketing exercise to appear to be what it is not.
After he reported that he will not assume power as prime minister if he does not obtain an absolute majority and threatening to ask Emmanuel Macron to resign As president, in a forced cohabitation, Jordan Bardella now wants to give predictability to the country’s international commitments.
Ukraine and the lepenists
Jordan Bardella announced this Wednesday that he “has no intention of questioning France’s commitments” at the international level in defense matters, if he comes to power.
“There is a red line. There is no intention to ask for commitments from France on the international scene, but rather a question of credibility among our European and NATO allies,” Bardella declared at the Eurosatory defense exhibition in Villepinte (Seine-Saint-Denis), on the outskirts of Paris.
In 2022, Marine Le Pen, campaigning for the presidential elections, promised to “leave the integrated mandate” of NATO, in addition to demand “independence” from France. Russia financed its presidential campaign with a loan.
The candidate Jordan Bardella, only 28 years old, “wants Ukraine to have as much ammunition as material, everything necessary to defend the front. But my red line will not change” against the “sending of material that could have increasing consequences in Eastern Europe” said.
“There is no intention to launch long-range missiles or weapons that would allow Ukraine to attack Russian territory,” he added.
Complete majority and Macron resignation?
Bardella rejected the hypothesis of being a “collaborator of the President of the Republic” and hopes to reach 289 deputies to “approve its emergencies and its reforms.”
“I am the candidate of truth. I tell the truth to the French,” she said.
Invited on Tuesday on CNews and Europe 1, the president of the National Rally, Bardella, wanted to clarify his statements after having assured Le Parisien on Tuesday that he would not run for the position of Prime Minister if he did not obtain the absolute majority in the next early legislative elections. That is to say, 289 seats in the lower house.
“If tomorrow the French placed the country in a situation of relative majority, that is, in a stalemate situationwith a Prime Minister who would not have an absolute majority in the National Assembly, himself in a cohabitation situation, then we could or will change things,” he stated.
“I tell the French people that there is a historic opportunity to change the course of history, to change politics in our country and to change course. But for that I need to have an absolute majority“Bardella insisted.
He then listed the measures he wants to apply in the event of his appointment in Matignon: “If you want me to act in the sense of less immigration, more fiscal peace. If you want us to defend France, our values and our identity, for this I need to have a majority to carry out my emergencies and my reforms”.
“It’s common sense. We have just lived two years with a relative majority, with budgets approved in 49.3, texts that the minority majority approved with the left or with LR,” explained Philippe Ballard, spokesperson for the extreme right.
“And then there is this government of national unity that Jordan Bardella wants to establish. It is obvious that without an absolute majority, we will not be able to apply all the measures that are on the table,” said the RN spokesperson.
The Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire referred to the changes in the RN’s position. “All the measures that were proposed during the European campaign they have disappeared“he remarked, adding that there is “nothing” left in the program. “It is a sidereal void,” he criticized again.
France punished by deficit
The decision was expected and came before these legislative elections. This Wednesday, the European Commission opened the way for excessive public deficit proceedings against seven EU countriesamong them France, where spending promises are multiplying ten days before the legislative elections.
Brussels calls on France to put order in the deficit: “The justice of the peace will be the markets.”
France, whose debt reaches 110% of GDPhas been in an excessive deficit process most of the time since the creation of the euro in the early 2000s. However, it exited it in 2017.
Last year, seven European countries exceeded the public deficit limit set at 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the Stability Pact, which also limits debt to 60% of GDP. They will have to take corrective measures to respect the budgetary rules of the European Union in the future, under penalty of financial sanctions.
These rules were put on hold after 2020 due to the economic crisis linked to Covid and then the war in Ukraine. They were renovated and reactivated this year.
The Stability Pact provides in principle financial sanctions of 0.1% of annual GDP for countries that do not apply the imposed corrections, or close to 2.5 billion euros in the case of France. Until now they have never been applied.
Impact on investments
Paris surpassed London in investments 18 months ago. President Macron’s decision to call early elections has surprised investors and has fueled market fears of a victory for the most extreme political parties.
London has regained its crown as Europe’s largest stock market from Paris, which has been shaken by political turmoil in France.
The total value of companies listed on the UK stock market stands at £2.54 trillion, FactSet data shows, enough to put London back above Paris, whose shares together are worth £2. .49 billion pounds.
“The political vote seems to be moving away from the center toward the far left or far right,” said Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies, the investment bank. “In our view, the market is right to be concerned about the deficit and debt outlook in France and the stalled reform process.”
Last week around £187bn wiped off the value of Paris-listed companies, when the call for early elections caused a fall in the stock market. Some of France’s largest banks, which hold large reserves of government bonds, were among the hardest hit. Shares in Société Générale, BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole fell more than 10 percent last week.
The fear of the extreme right
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, another bank, warned that a victory for Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally party could cause a “financial crisis” Liz Truss style“ in France. Although Vincent Mortier, chief investment officer at Amundi, Europe’s largest investment firm, disagrees.
The CAC 40, which houses France’s most publicly traded companies, fell almost 5 percent last week, erasing all profits which he had achieved so far in 2024, after having set a new record just a few weeks ago.
Stock market analysts have commented that compared to other countries going to the polls this year, including France, the political landscape in Britain is safer, given the Labor Party’s wide lead in the polls.
