Why is Mexico becoming a new ‘wall’ for migrants who want to reach the US?

The drop has also been constant since January, when 174,000 arrests were reported, the lowest figure reported since June of last year. What draws the most attention among authorities and experts is that the new downturn is occurring right in the spring, a time of year in which numbers usually grow as a result of more favorable weather conditions in this area of ​​North America.

“What happened this spring is an anomaly,” said Adam Isacson, an expert on border and security issues from Wola in an article he published for the newspaper. Washington Post. In a subsequent conversation with EL TIEMPO, Isacson maintains that the numbers reported for this spring are the lowest recorded since 2017, when President Donald Trump had just taken office as president with the promise of deporting millions of undocumented immigrants.

“What we know is that it is becoming increasingly difficult for migrants to reach the border, most likely due to the actions that the Mexican government has been taking,” says this analyst.

According to data collected by Isacson, since December, the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico is detaining more than 120,000 immigrants per month, a record in relation to previous periods, when they did not even exceed 50,000 detentions.

Although Amlo and President Joe Biden have not always been on the same pageThe truth is that for some time now both governments have expanded their cooperation on this front.

In fact, the leaders spoke again this week to refine strategies. At the end of the talk they issued a joint statement in which they announced instructions to “significantly” reduce the flow of immigrants.

“The two leaders discussed how to effectively manage hemispheric migration, strengthen operational efficiency on our shared border and thus improve the security and prosperity of the citizens of both countries. “In the short term, the two leaders directed their national security teams to work together to immediately implement concrete measures to significantly reduce irregular border crossings while protecting human rights,” the White House said in describing the conversation.

According to this, the presidents also committed to promoting initiatives to address the root causes of migration throughout the Western Hemisphere.noting that increasing shared prosperity and security will be of “critical importance to effectively address the long-term migration challenge.”

In other words, everything indicates that Mexico is becoming “a wall” for migrants who aspire to reach the United States. And while no one knows if it is sustainable, for the moment it is giving a break to a Biden administration that was on the ropes due to the immigration crisis.

And just at a key moment, as it was the Republicans’ preferred attack in this final stretch ahead of the presidential and legislative elections next November.
According to Isacson, the strong measures that Mexico has been taking could be due to several reasons. The first of them strategic. Recently, United States authorities briefly closed several border posts, arguing that they needed the staff to handle and process migrants arriving in the country.

Something, according to this analyst, that affected the enormous trade that exists between both countries and that surely had considerable economic effects. In other words, a kind of warning from the United States: if you do not help, then you will have to pay the cost in another way.

At the same time, this expert maintains, Amlo was able to reach the conclusion that a Trump government starting in 2025 would be much more radical than the one in the past and, therefore, it would be in his best interest to make the path easier for Biden.

What is not so clear is whether the Mexican effort can last over time. Official figures indicate, for example, that this country would only be deporting a fraction of the arrested immigrants. In total, about 8,300 people among the 360,000 detained.
That is to say, the vast majority would be staying in Mexico for now, which is also not sustainable and could lead, in the near future, to a whole tide of immigrants if Amlo chooses to reopen the floodgates.

Likewise, there are several factors that threaten to worsen the situation in the short term. One of them, precisely, is the possibility of Trump reaching the White House. For many, who are already in Mexico or are on their way, these next six months could be seen as “now or never.”

In the same way, the authorities fear that the arrival of a new government in Mexico after the elections on June 2 will trigger a transition period in which the immigration issue would not be a priority.

And, in parallel, they are concerned that a victory by Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela during the elections on July 28 will produce a new exodus of Venezuelans to the United States, where more than 750,000 have already arrived in the last three years.

We will see. But for now, and although historically high numbers of migrants continue to arrive at the border, Biden is surely sleeping a little easier.