The worst moment for the Cuban economy is nowsaid Cuban professor Carmelo Mesa-Lago in an interview with the Spanish newspaper The countryin which he analyzes the current panorama of the Island, compares it with the crises of the 90s and details the tensions between economic power and political power that are growing in Cuba, while stating that the Cuban scenario today “is a catastrophe”.
“I have several reasons why I say that this crisis is worse: the first is that the crisis of the nineties is preceded by a period that is the best. Cuba was at a much higher level than that which preceded this crisis. I have done a calculation of the average growth or decrease in Cuba between 2019 and 2023, using government figures, and as an annual average it fell almost 2%“said Mesa-Lago, professor emeritus at the American University of Pittsburgh.
The economist provided data that supports his approaches: “The industrial production index is important. The drop in 2022 was 54%, so Industrial production in 2022 is less than half of what it was in 1989. Regarding agriculture, I have calculated that between 2016 and 2022 there was an annual drop in agricultural production of 7.3%.”
But inflation is one of the problems that most clearly demonstrates the current Cuban chaos. “If you look at all the years of that crisis, the worst were 1992 and 1993. Now, according to Government figures, we are talking about almost 1000% in the year 2022. All the estimates that foreign economists have made place inflation in three digits, 700%, 500%, so it is the worst inflation there has been outside of Venezuela. the worse inflation that there is in Latin America is that of Cuba, and it is among the highest in the world“Mesa-Lago said.
According to the economist, one of the fundamental causes of the current crisis, one “that has been consistent throughout the Revolution,” “is that Cuba does not generate enough exports to pay for imports“.
“Then, a goods trade deficit occurs. This deficit must be paid in some way, and it is paid for with dependence on another nation. First the Soviet Union, then Venezuela. And that makes the economic system unsustainable. When the protective or subsidizing partner loses, there comes a crisis. There is a crisis in the nineties because the USSR disappears, and in the case of Venezuela because of the humanitarian, economic, political and social crisis, and although the aid from that country does not end, today it sends half of the oil it sent before,” he added. .
Regarding the economic reform promoted by Raúl Castro, Mesa-Lago said: “I think that His measures were well oriented, but they were very slow, they were loaded with obstacles, high taxes, inspections. They should have been faster and deeper. That is more important than what Miguel Díaz-Canel has done, that the only thing he has done is legalize private companies.”
The professor also referred to the debacle generated by the economic chaos in the social fabric of the Island: “I believe that Cuba’s social development was greater than economic development, and that is a problem in terms of financing. “If you don’t have subsidies, you can’t function.”
“The Revolution took steps to expand education, health, and pensions, especially in the rural sector, but that no longer has anything to do with what we are experiencing today. For me it is a tragedy… Because Whatever you look at, housing, health, education, everything is finished“, he said and added: “That egalitarian society is over, but the Government does not talk about that.”
But if recent years and the correlation of powers in Cuba have shown anything, it is that there are those who do not want to break the current monopoly on the Island, who are responsible for the social “catastrophe” and the economic tragedy, who affirm that “he private sector “It is the Trojan horse that imperialism uses to try to destroy the Revolution.”
“If you change the plan and put a decentralized one, and the decisions are not made from above, but rather they come down and are made by businessmen, the private sector, and there is an important role for the market, The delegation of economic power implies some delegation of political power. There is fear in that group that, if reforms begin, the classic snowball will be unstoppable. “I can’t prove that, but that’s the only reasonable explanation I can find,” Mesa-Lago concluded.
